Let us fervently hope so
Fervently, fervently.
Look what someone sent me. Gives me hope for a sensible future – although the concluding comments from new Fed Farmers’ president Bruce Wills again confirm that he’s chosen the hogwash side of the climate panic (emphasis added):
New Zealand has been tipped to quit the Kyoto Protocol, designed to cut global emissions.
Government officials next month travel to Doha in Qatar for the latest round of negotiations on the treaty, but with less than four weeks before the summit, acting Climate Change Minister Simon Bridges says the Government has “not made a decision” on its commitment.
“My understanding is that decisions have yet to be made on that matter,” he said.
But the actions of participants in the carbon market, and market signs, suggest the Government is preparing to walk away. It will soon pass legislation that critics claim will weaken an already ineffectual emissions trading scheme, the mechanism designed to put a price on carbon and encourage a transition to a lower-carbon economy.
Market watchers say changes to the scheme do not look like preparation for the Government agreeing to new emissions reduction commitments that would kick in from the end of the year. They say low activity on the carbon market, despite bargain prices, are evidence carbon emitting businesses think the same.
Last week carbon prices dropped to about $1 a tonne for some types of credits, but the market was quiet, with emitters resisting the temptation to stockpile cheap credits for the future.
NZ carbon market now incredible
“I’m surprised people are not filling their boots,” one market participant said. “People seem to be having a tough time believing the market is credible.”
There is growing speculation the Government’s silence is because it could save face internationally by waiting for big players like China and the US to refuse to sign up to the second Kyoto round, before following suit.
But OM Financial carbon broker Nigel Brunnel thinks New Zealand will sign up to new commitments in Doha, but then delay ratifying them. That could buy time to pursue aligning with a group of Asia-Pacific partners, and adopting voluntary emissions targets outside of Kyoto.
That fits into two of the Government’s climate-change themes, New Zealand doing its share, and not damaging competitiveness by enforcing heavy carbon payments on businesses when trading partners like the US and China do not.
NZ’s “token” costs us dear but the earth doesn’t notice
Because of that, about 85 per cent of world carbon emissions are not covered by international reduction agreements, and it is said in government circles that China’s emissions increase daily by New Zealand’s entire annual carbon output.
Brunnel said companies with obligations to surrender credits had seen their value collapse, and he believed such businesses had lost faith in the market. Trading for some overseas-issued credits might also be slow because of talk New Zealand might not sign a new Kyoto deal, creating fears credit holders might not be able to surrender them under our ETS.
The Sustainability Council’s Simon Terry said he did not expect New Zealand to accept a second set of Kyoto commitments in Doha, and he would not go himself because he could not justify the emissions produced to get there.
The Green Party last week tried to force the Government’s hand, arguing New Zealand should show leadership.
But Federated Farmers president Bruce Wills called the Kyoto Protocol “somewhat flawed”, given some of the world’s biggest greenhouse gas emitters weren’t involved. He said nothing would change for the farming community should the Government end its involvement.
He said emissions and global warming were major issues. “But we weren’t convinced the Kyoto Protocol was the most sensible approach.”
H/t – Don N
Now I learn (simultaneously with pressing “Publish”) that the story is up on Stuff (thanks, Robin Pittwood).
Views: 373
>”He [Federated Farmers president Bruce Wills] said emissions and global warming were major issues”
I suggest he reads ‘Production, distribution and utilisation of maize in New Zealand’
http://researcharchive.lincoln.ac.nz/dspace/bitstream/10182/1074/8/booker_mapplsci.pdf
3. Maize production in New Zealand
3.1 Introduction
Maize has physiological characteristics that allow it to efficiently assimilate carbon dioxide. As a C4-pathway plant, maize requires warmer temperatures than common pastures species in New
Zealand.
3.2 History of Maize Production in New Zealand
Although the area in production of maize grain shows no trend since 1979, the total
production has increased due to advances in crop yield (Figure 5).
# # #
Two of the major issues of NZ maize production would be the beneficial effect on yields of a little extra warmth and carbon dioxide – coincidentally the same two “major issues” Bruce Wills finds distressing.
There’s no pleasing some people.
Wow! Good point, RC.
Via SkS:-
Corn belt moving northward with climate change
Agribusiness giant Cargill is investing in northern U.S. facilities, anticipating increased grain production in that part of the country, said Greg Page, the chief executive officer of the Minneapolis-based company.
“The number of rail cars, the number of silos, the amount of loading capacity” all change, Mr. Page said in an interview in New York. “You can see capital go to where there is ability to produce more tons per acre.”
Losses in some areas will mean gains in others, Mr. Page said. A native of Bottineau, a small town on North Dakota’s border with Canada, Mr. Page said that when he was in high school in the 1960s, “you could grow wheat, or wheat. That was it,” he said.
“You go to that very same place today — they can grow soybeans, they can grow canola, they can grow corn, they can grow field peas and export them to India,” he said. “A lot of that has been to do with the fact that they have six, eight days more of frost-free weather.”
Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/news/us/corn-belt-moving-northward-with-climate-change-658498/#ixzz2AdcZEXZZ
All that capital moved mostly for the sake of “six, eight days more of frost-free weather”.
Now consider the risk to that capital of a climate shift back again (as has been predicted by non-consensus analysts): the corn belt (and every other crop belt) moves south; the northern growers get hit like the southern are at present; and the southern growers benefit again.
Also an interesting snippet re water and the Ogalalla aquifer:-
“When the wells were put down here in the ’40s, they went 30 foot down into a 180-foot-deep aquifer,” he said. “Those wells were pumping 1,500, 2,000 gallons a minute in the ’50s. Now, we’re at 135 feet deep, and they’re pumping 200, 250 a minute. We’ve got to make sure we have enough water.”
So not all of the corn belt movement is due to changing climate in the US Midwest.
Similar flight of capital to Southland dairying in NZ but the risk of a climate shift there (reversing current regime) is huge because even now, cold, windy and wet weather is a significant animal welfare factor. See:-
‘Animal Management Implications of Southland Wintering Systems’
http://www.side.org.nz/IM_Custom/ContentStore/Assets/10/86/75a90eb9b314c969ea1bd061b5cfd95b/Animal%20Management%20Implications%20of%20Southland%20Wintering%20Systems.pdf
Mr Wills still thinks emissions are “major issues, but isn’t convinced that Kyoto-type agreements are the way to go”. Where do Fed Farmers get their environmental information? For a business group whose core activity is growing stuff, one would imagine their knowledge about CO2 would be beyond this level!
I agree. Also, I heard that a truly “sustainable” agricultural enterprise would remove nothing from the land. Great idea for a farm, don’t you think? No doubt right up the new-look Fed Farmers’ alley! You suggest it; I’ll stand back and observe the response. Cheers.
So to extrapolate that, if we reduce emissions by 10%, forever, then that effort will be wiped out by the Chinese in about two and a half hours
I’m not sure, Andy… 10% of a small number times infinity is actually, er, quite, um, large, isn’t it? We could be saved!
this was recorded in our State Parliament of Victoria this week:
http://tex.parliament.vic.gov.au/bin/texhtmlt?form=jVicHansard.dumpall&db=daily&dodraft=1&speech=17190&activity=Adjournment&title=Planning:+coastal+management&date1=23&date2=October&date3=2012&query=true%09and+%28+data+contains+%27coastal%27%09and+data+contains+%27management%27+%29%09and+%28+members+contains+%27FINN%27+%29
Mr FINN (Western Metropolitan) — I wish to raise a matter for the attention of the Minister for Planning, and I am delighted to see him in the chamber this evening. This matter concerns an issue that he is no doubt grappling with at the moment — that is, the alleged rising sea levels, which would affect in my region places such as Williamstown, Altona, Point Cook and the newly developing Wyndham Harbour, which is a very exciting development indeed. All those areas would be greatly impacted if there were rising sea levels. I ask the minister to take into consideration the cost to the taxpayer of the claptrap that has come from the climate change industry to this point.
The minister may take into consideration desal plants around this country which were built on the basis that, according to Sandbags Flannery — Professor Tim Flannery — it would never rain again.
*** DAILY HANSARD *** PROOF VERSION ONLY *** DO NOT QUOTE ***
Of course he is known as Sandbags Flannery because since he made that statement we have had floods — –
The DEPUTY PRESIDENT — Order! The President has made rulings about Mr Finn’s reference to Mr Flannery before and I ask Mr Finn to respect those. I confess that I do not recall the precise details of the President’s ruling, but I ask Mr Finn to — –
Mr FINN — I am sorry, I thought that was just in reference to me referring to him as a shyster and a shonk, so I apologise.
The DEPUTY PRESIDENT — Order! If Mr Finn wants to behave that way he will not have the rest of his adjournment matter listened to. He knows that that was completely out of order.
Mr FINN — I honestly thought that was the case.
The DEPUTY PRESIDENT — Order! I remind Mr Finn we are not in primary school, and I will not accept his look of innocence.
Mr FINN — Perhaps I should write it out a hundred times. The desal plants are costing many billions of dollars around the country because of that particular individual.
Then of course we have the carbon tax, which is costing Australians very dearly. That carbon tax was introduced because, according to the Prime Minister, ‘The earth is warming’. We now know, according to the British bureau of meteorology, that it is not warming, it has not been warming for at least 16 years and before that 16-year period any warming was negligible.
*** DAILY HANSARD *** PROOF VERSION ONLY *** DO NOT QUOTE ***
It is just nonsense that has been pumped in to drag a dollar out of the government and out of the taxpayers of this country.
Then of course we have to take into consideration the great hot gospellers of climate change — Al Gore, Kevin Rudd, Greg Combet and Tim Flannery himself — who have all moved to waterside residences. They are obviously deeply concerned about rising sea levels.
I ask the minister to take these matters into consideration because there are a number of people in my electorate who are obviously concerned about decisions that may be made which will affect their properties and their suburbs. This is a very important issue. It is far too important to be decided on the advice of people who have been proven to be wrong time and again.
I ask the minister to not accept the advice from the climate change industry willy-nilly but look at this — as I am sure he will — in a reasonable and balanced manner to deliver the right results for the people of Victoria in this very important matter.
The DEPUTY PRESIDENT — Order! That was bordering on a set piece. I will allow it, but Mr Finn was disrespectful in pushing the envelope in the way he did.
Mr Finn — On a point of order, Deputy President, I hear what you are saying; I do not understand it, though, and I would be grateful if you would explain that, please.
The DEPUTY PRESIDENT — Order! I do not have to explain it. I am telling Mr Finn that it was bordering on a set piece.
*** DAILY HANSARD *** PROOF VERSION ONLY *** DO NOT QUOTE ***
His behaviour in relation to Mr Flannery after I asked him to be careful and respect the President’s rulings was disrespectful to the chair and to Mr Flannery.
Mr Flannery (affectionately called ‘Alarmist Flannery) is our Climate Commissioner currently being paid an obscene amount of money per annum to scare the pants off us and to persuade us all that we need to pay a carbon tax
If you want to know him better just google or read this http://theconversation.edu.au/climate-and-floods-flannery-is-no-expert-but-neither-are-the-experts-5709
This is how climate science works..
It is late fall and the Indians on a remote reservation in Mattawa asked their new chief if the coming winter was going to be cold or mild.
Since he was a chief in a modern society, he had never been taught the old secrets of the tribe. When he looked at the sky, he couldn’t tell what the winter was going to be like.
Nevertheless, to be on the safe side, he told his tribe that the winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village should collect firewood to be prepared.
But, being a practical leader, after several days, he got an idea. He went to the phone booth, called the Weather Network and asked, “Is the coming winter going to be cold?”
“It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold”, the meteorologist at the weather service responded.
So the chief went back to his people and told them to collect even more firewood in order to be prepared.
A week later, he called the Weather Network again. “Does it still look like it is going to be a very cold winter?”
“Yes”, the man at the weather service again replied, “it’s going to be a very cold winter.”
The chief again went back to his people and ordered them to collect every scrap of firewood they could find.
Two weeks later, the chief called the Weather Network again. “Are you absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?”
“Absolutely”, the man replied. “It’s looking more and more like it is going to be one of the coldest winters we’ve ever seen.”
“How can you be so sure?” the chief asked.
The weatherman replied, “Because the Indians are collecting a shitload of firewood!”
“But OM Financial carbon broker Nigel Brunnel thinks New Zealand will sign up to new commitments in Doha, but then delay ratifying them.”
As far as I am aware there is nothing on the table to replace Kyoto when it expires at the end of the year. If I am correct how can we sign up to new commitments?
“This is a Sophie’s Choice: If we respond to the moral imperative to raise public awareness and alarm about climate, we have to be deceptive.
If we are committed to truth and scientific accuracy, we have to talk in hedged, caveat-filled, probabilistic language that is utterly ineffectual in reaching and activating a tuned-out public.”
-David Roberts, Grist
http://grist.org/climate-energy/hawks-vs-scolds-how-reverse-tribalism-affects-climate-communication/
Viral now but h/t to Tom Fuller, WUWT and JN regulars.
“probabilistic language” as in “increased probability” of Sandy is still getting a VERY big workout.