US carbon emissions, shale gas and Europe

Clarence drops in

Under our post about US carbon dioxide emissions flattening out, Clarence gave a pithy analysis. I promote it and add links to verify the points he makes because they’re so devastating to the warmist cause. Clarence’s comments indented and bold.

The graph above shows the startling increase in shale gas output over the last few years. People are talking about a miraculous transformation of the energy industry and thus the global balance of power. Will it begin to starve militant Muslims of oil funds and thereby, perhaps, make the Western world a little safer? Will the US feel less inclined to engage in conflicts in the Middle East to safeguard their industry?

Sorry, but I can’t verify the relative US/Europe emissions reductions.

This is highly likely to be true, as even Germany seems to manage about one every six weeks. From a report by the World Resources Institute:

India

Research conducted for this paper identified 455 proposed new coal-fired power plants in India, with a total installed capacity of 519,396 MW.

Since there’s no telling when they’ll be installed or how many won’t proceed, it’s impossible to confirm the rate. There are numerous non-trivial impediments to these projects on various grounds, including “coal availability, land and water resource availability and public resistance. Concerns about land seizures, air and groundwater pollution, the effect of thermal discharges on fisheries and the displacement of communities have fuelled local opposition to coal-fired plants.”

China

As of July 2012, China had proposed adding 363 coal-fired plants with a combined capacity exceeding 557,938 MW.

As with India, I’ve found no indication of when these plants will be commissioned, and therefore cannot verify the (well-known) one-per-week claim. Much depends on the progress of the individual applications. One report claims many coal projects in China are being delayed by doubts over the economic performance of coal generators and by growing public concern over their environmental impacts.

Although there’s no reason to doubt the report, its claims that coal-fired projects could be delayed sound like wishful thinking. China needs energy in large quantities right now to alleviate widespread poverty. The leadership is content to take reasonable steps to look after the environment, but can’t afford to put those concerns before the people’s welfare.

As for the profitability of coal plants — it’s hard to imagine that, for such essential projects, anything short of disastrous losses would hold sway with a communist regime.

Clarence ends with an expression of optimism that CO2 emissions will continue and takes a final swipe at the warmists, reminding them that carbon dioxide does good work in the real world and is not the unmitigated disaster they pretend.

The increase in atmospheric CO2 levels measured at Mauna Loa since 1959 stands at 24%. For example, since 1950, production of wheat and soy beans has more than doubled and of maize and rice has about tripled.

Global food production index PER CAPITA from 1961 to 2005 varies somewhat but increases from about 78 to about 105 — a rise of about 35%. Among the contributions to this amazing increase in agricultural productivity are high-yield varieties, more effective herbicides and insecticides, better land management, better fertilizers — and more carbon dioxide.

This was achieved during a time of unprecedented population increase, when prestigious bodies everywhere were predicting doom by starvation for millions of people. Yet by now, fewer people are in conditions of starvation than ever were.

We are intelligent and inventive and have underestimated the beneficial effects of carbon dioxide.

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