Interesting Guest post by Ed Thurstan of Sydney, Australia
Synopsis
This study shows that the NOAA maintained GHCN V2 database contains errors in calculating a Mean temperature from a Maximum and a Minimum. 144 years of data from 36 Australian stations are affected.
Means are published when the underlying Maximums and/or Minimums have been rejected.
Indonesia’s Mount Merapi volcano put a lot of ejecta into the air; ash, CO2, and SO2.
A plume of sulfur dioxide from Indonesia’s deadly Mount Merapi volcano is swirling through the upper atmosphere over western Australia. This 7-day movie from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) onboard Europe’s MetOp satellite shows the plume in motion, and it could soon swirl across the entire continent. Sky watchers in Australia should be alert for volcanic sunsets.
2.69 The Committee was astounded to learn that private enterprises are apparently able to forecast particular seasonal conditions and events, which may not necessarily have been forecast by our leading national agencies. The question that came to the mind of Committee members when this issue came to light was “how did you forecast these events and why didn’t anyone else?” When considering the skills, knowledge and expertise in our national agencies, the question that came to mind was “what do they know that CSIRO and the Bureau don’t?”
———————————————————————————————————————–
For the answers to these questions see:-
Solar – Cosmic Ray Flux Relationship
WHAT IS THE MAIN FACTOR CONTROLLING THE MURRAY DARLING BASIN SYSTEM RAINFALL (SOUTH QLD-NEW SOUTH WALES-VICTORIA & SOUTH AUSTRALIA AREAS)?
Inquiry into long-term meteorological forecasting in Australia
Recommendation 1
The Committee recommends that CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology provide to the Australian Government a report with detailed explanatory information as to why a particular dynamic forecasting model or system was chosen for use in Australia. The report should be completed by the end of 2010.
Recommendation 2
The Committee recommends that weather and climate variables and influences, for example, particulates, be identified, thoroughly examined to assess their degree of impact on our weather and climate, and incorporated into forecasting models as necessary. Priority areas for incorporating these variables should be published.
Recommendation 3
The Committee recommends that the Australian Government increase funding for research into the effects of weather and climate variables such as El Nino and Indian Ocean Dipole that impact on Australia’s forecasting abilities.
Recommendation 4
The Committee recommends that the Australian Government conduct a short review to determine what supercomputing facilities are required by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology to conduct crucial forecasting operations and research. Any additional funding to increase supercomputing capacity should be made available as a priority so that all model research, development and application can be undertaken in Australia.
Recommendation 5
The Committee recommends that the Australian Government undertake an audit of weather stations that contribute data to forecasting models, to ensure that they comply with World Meteorological Organization guidelines. All necessary actions should be taken to ensure that all stations comply.
Recommendation 6
The Committee recommends that the Australian Government budgets for the purchase, installation and maintenance of additional weather stations in critical areas around the country. There should be broad consultation to consider the number of new stations needed and their placement.
Recommendation 7
The Committee recommends that the Bureau of Meteorology employment conditions be reviewed and that a more secure tenure be provided to relevant staff, including increasing contracts from three years to five years.
Recommendation 8
The Committee recommends that the Australian Government establish an institute of meteorological science to develop an ongoing partnership between relevant research bodies and implement a coordinated research agenda.
It seems to be that the most costly, ineffectual and redundant option is opted for just at the end of a crisis immediately prior to the situation turning around.
We have a classic example in New Zealand of a Synfuel plant the the govt funded at great expense then sold for a pittance once the end of the 70s oil crisis rendered it uneconomic.
I was just starting work in ’73 so in my youthful wisdom I thought the Synfuel plant was a wonderful idea.
“a report with detailed explanatory information as to why a particular dynamic forecasting model or system was chosen for use in Australia. The report should be completed by the end of 2010”.
It would not have mattered which GCM (they chose UKMO core) the CSIRO (or NIWA) went with from the current models because natural cycles are not parameterized in any configurations.
The only way that for example, a climate shift can be simulated (or mimiced) is to use Stochastic modeling where statistical methods and probability are used to generate random outcomes. There is no predictive capability from this approach however, because there is no way to get the timing right as is the case with volcanic activity in GCMs.
A better approach IMO is to incorporate natural cycles in the parameters of GCMs. But then supercomputers are not required for prediction as Ian Holton of Holton Weather Forecasting Pty Ltd has demonstrated.
And not just Ian Holton, This seen at JoNova:-
Binny:
November 24th, 2010 at 7:59 am
In 2004 I was reading a report by the person who surveyed the site of the Wivenhoe Dam in Brisbane I think the report was written in about 1973 and in it the surveyor clearly stated, that based on long-term rainfall records and the population growth of Brisbane from 1950 to 1970 the Wivenhoe would supply Brisbane water needs until approximately 2005 therefore construction of the next dam would need to start in about 1995.
Just as I finished reading the report I looked up at the TV and here was Peter Beattie being questioned about the very real probability that Brisbane will run out of water in 2005. Beattie looked squarely at the camera and and earnestly said “This is climate change no one could have predicted this”.
i.e. The CSIRO supercomputed GCM prediction of continuing drought has led to the construction of expensive and redundant desalination plants in Australia when simple consultation of long-term rainfall records should have prompted the construction of reservoirs instead.
The use of supercomputers in the current configuration of the models for the prediction of rainfall is akin to the use of a D9 Bulldozer to drive in a carpet tack – and just as ineffective.
“I have just been told by a House of Reps Clerk that – “Due to the change in Committee allocations, there is no longer a Standing Committee on Industry, Science and Innovation.” I think this code for – “…this Inquiry is now dead and buried”.
IMHO this so called “Inquiry” was all just a thinly veiled campaign to justify wringing more taxpayers money from Govt to fund BoM ongoing incompetence.”
Warwick Hughes has spotted a neat trifecta: whether it be rain, maximums or minimums, the BOM gets it wrong.
For this spring the Australian BOM predicted it would be dry and warm, instead we got very wet and quite cold. The models are so bad on a regional basis, it’s uncannily like they are almost useful… if they call things “dry”, expect “wet”.
On August 24 the Australian BOM had pretty much no idea that any unusual wetness was headed their way. Toss a coin, 50:50, yes or no. Spring 2010 was going to be “average”, except in SW Western Australia where they claimed “a wetter than normal spring is favoured.” What follows were 100 year floods, or at least above average rain to nearly every part of the nation bar the part that was supposed to be getting more rainfall.
[Snip]
How many billions have we lost thanks to farmers who might have been able to harvest early, or plant different crops, or avoid seeding in droughts, or any one of a thousand other choices that would help them to make the most of our highly variable climate.
There is a policy vacuum begging to be filled here. Will either side of politics in Australia spend a fraction of the carbon emissions reduction scheme to fly Piers Corbyn or Joe Bastardi out here and ask him to train up an Australian team to work on local conditions?
Hat tip to Val Majkus. Thanks!
—————————————————————————————————————————-
No need for Corbyn or Bastardi – Holtom is on to it right there in AU.
The most powerful incarnation of La Nina in more than three decades has produced one of Australia’s wettest years.
The World Meteorological Organisation yesterday released data that showed the global average temperature this year was 0.55C warmer than pre-1990 averages — making it the third-hottest in recorded history.
However, Australia bucked the trend because of weather events in the Pacific Ocean.
A powerful La Nina, characterised by a fall in surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and heavy rains, has been blamed for the flooding that has plagued the eastern states since August.
The rain has also been attributed to cool weather, with inland Australia one of the few places in the world to record below-average temperatures this year.
David Jones, the head of the Bureau of Meteorology’s climate analysis office, said the rains were expected to continue through to autumn, on the basis that La Nina events usually lasted for a year.
“Australia at the moment is tracking its third-wettest year on record and there’s still another month to go, so we won’t exactly know where it’s going to be until January,” Dr Jones said.
“We’ve got the largest La Nina since the 1970s at least, and that’s leading to heavy — in places, excessive — rainfall for north and eastern Australia.”
Not even the driest year ever seen in parts of Western Australia was enough to stop the WMO recording the nation’s wettest spring on record.
“The one place that has missed out, and I guess tells us a fair bit about what’s going on in the background, is southwest Western Australia,” Dr Jones said.
He added that La Nina did not usually have an impact on South Australia.
At the beginning of the year, a drought-causing El Nino was well established in the Pacific Ocean, but was rapidly replaced with La Nina.
The WMO said that from May until October, northern Australia experienced rainfall 152 per cent higher than average, while drought-breaking downpours hit the southeast.
NSW Natural Resources commissioner John Williams, a former CSIRO chief, said while cooler than usual weather was recorded in Australia’s centre, the national average was slightly higher than pre-1990 levels.
Dr Williams said he expected temperatures to climb to extreme levels in some parts of the country, while other regions would become cooler.
The heavy snow showers that hit Chicago Saturday have left the area, but portions of northwest Indiana could see an additional eight inches of lake effect snow before the system completely passes Sunday afternoon.
The snowstorm dropped more than five inches on the Chicago area Saturday and canceled more than 325 flights.
Bitter cold temperatures are expected to replace the snow this week.
A winter storm advisory remains in effect until 6 a.m. Sunday for Lake County, Ind., according to the National Weather Service’s website. The advisory means periods of snow will cause travel difficulties and motorists should prepare for snow-covered roads and limited visibilities.
Lake effect snow along the Lake Michigan shore is expected to shift from the Illinois shore into Indiana, the weather service said. As much as five additional inches of snow is possible, but amounts may vary greatly over short distances.
Further east, a more serious lake effect snow warning will remain in effect until 9 a.m. for Porter County, Ind., the weather service said. As much as eight additional inches of snow are possible in this area, which includes Valparaiso, Ind.
Lake-effect snow showers typically align in bands that can produce several inches of snow per hour for several hours, the weather service said. Visibility can drop to zero in minutes and travel is strongly discouraged.
In Chicago, the heaviest snow has moved out of the area, but flurries remain possible until 9 a.m. Sunny skies are expected in the afternoon, but temperatures will only reach about 23 degrees.
The weather service reported more than five inches of snow fell at O’Hare Airport Saturday — breaking the old record for Dec. 4 snow set in 1964.
More than 325 flights were canceled at O’Hare Airport and “a few delays” were reported at Midway Airport, according to the city’s Department of Aviation.
Bitter cold temperatures are expected to move into the area the rest of the week, the weather service said. Highs are only expected to be in the low-20s early this week, and single digit lows are possible.
New Zealand is in for a long, hot summer as La Nina hits our shores, says the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa).
Already, temperatures have soared across the country in late November, a pattern likely to continue until March, principal scientist James Renwick said today.
“In November, pretty much all of the country, the South Island and most of the North Island away from the coast, was quite a bit warmer than normal. Over summer, we’re expecting things to be on the warmer side in most places,” he told NZPA.
He said the current warm weather pattern — along with another La Nina heatwave in the late 80s — was the strongest in about 50 years.
People could expect temperatures to be several degrees Celsius above normal, taking some regions into the 30s “from time to time”.
While good news for holiday-makers, it was not so good for Northland or Waikato farmers already concerned about dry conditions, he said.
With little rain forecast before Christmas, Northland farmers facing their third consecutive summer drought this week said they would seek support from the Government.
El Nino and La Nina are different stages in a cyclical pattern of climate turbulence in the Pacific. While El Nino usually brings higher rainfall, La Nina brings cooler sea temperatures, high atmospheric pressure and drier air. Strong winds blow moisture away making for cloudless skies and dry conditions in equatorial countries from the International Date Line east to South America.
“The net result for New Zealand is we tend to get high pressures and more settled conditions,” Dr Renwick said.
Some scientists believe that the increased intensity and frequency — now every two to three years — of El Nino and La Nina events in recent decades is due to warmer ocean temperatures resulting from global warming.
[Warmer? – time to check the UNISYS Current Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Plot]
“You could say yes, in that temperatures have risen in New Zealand in the last century, so the chances of getting warm conditions have increased… because things are warming up,” Dr Renwick said.
The United Nations said today that 2010 is set to be among the top three warmest years since records began in 1850, and the past decade the warmest, in a new sign of man-made climate change.
Continues……….
——————————————————————————————————————– The forecast: wettest summer in 21 years
The North Island is in for the wettest summer in 21 years – ending the recent dry spell which broke numerous heat records./strong>
Weather Watch chief analyst Philip Duncan said the La Nina weather pattern which New Zealand was experiencing at the moment would bring heavy rain to the upper North Island.
“There has been all this talk about droughts, but really we have the wrong ingredients for a drought, although arguably we’ve had the right start to it.”
The La Nina weather pattern has been warming oceans in the Pacific and warm oceans guarantee rain, he said.
[Warming? – not according to the UNISYS Current Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Plot it ain’t]
“We’ve been experiencing all of the other symptoms of La Nina, except the rain which will be coming soon.”
If this summer follows the pattern of the La Nina of 1988-89, the upper North Island and Auckland could expect to see drizzly weather and “pretty heavy rain” by the end of January, he said.
“Put it this way, if we don’t have heavy rain by the end of January weather forecasters and scientists need to closely look at how we predict these events, because there’s obviously something wrong.”
This is good news for Northland farmers who are struggling with the extremely dry conditions.
It has been so dry that some farmers urged Agriculture Minister David Carter to declare a drought after minimal rain in the past two months set new records for low rainfall in many areas.
However, Mr Duncan said farmers would be happy with the weather predicted for summer.
“It looks like there will be an end to their drought early in the new year. But, I would recommend that they still prepare for a drought to be on the safe side,” he said.
Last month was unusually hot and dry for parts of Waikato, New Plymouth and Central Otago which experienced their hottest-ever November weather.
One weather station in Cromwell recorded 32.3C, an all-time record for November.
In the Waikato, a reading of 28.1C in Ruakura on November 28 was the highest in the region in 100 years of record-keeping.
For many of us it’s hard to get our heads around what La Niña actually means for New Zealand and lately there have been many news stories at WeatherWatch.co.nz and across the media with several different predictions.
WeatherWatch.co.nz has taken the main points to explain why some news headlines have warned of “Looming La Niña droughts” while others say “Looming La Niña rains”.
Firstly it’s important to understand what La Niña is overall:
La Niña is when the cold pool of water in the eastern Pacific intensifies. This is mostly EAST of the International Dateline and around the equator – so well away from New Zealand.
During El Niño (the opposite of La Niña) the warm water spreads from the west Pacific and the Indian Ocean and into to the east Pacific. (So, the opposite of what we currently have now). It takes the rain with it, causing extensive drought in the western Pacific and brings rainfall to the normally dry eastern Pacific.
To help understand what is currently happening to the sea temperatures during this La Niña event look at this current map provided by Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology.
You can see the cooler than average waters east of the International Date Line and near the equator stretching towards South America (marked in blue).
But you can also see the warmer than average waters in our part of the world (pink and red). Stretching westwards from the International Date Line to the Coral Sea in north east Australia and into the Indian Ocean (west of Australia). It’s this pink and red area that creates more lows which in turn creates more rain. It also elevates the risks of tropical cyclones in the south west Pacific around New Caledonia for example.
What do warmer waters bring?
Well warm waters fuel rain making lows. This is why during El Niño (the opposite of what we have at the moment) we often get droughts right over New Zealand – because the fuel for rain bearing lows shifts away from us and towards South America.
With the current warmer than average waters north of us we’ve already seen major flooding in Queensland and New South Wales plus a tropical depression over Vanuatu around 10 days ago. New Zealand has missed out on rain due to persistent highs blocking these lows from reaching us.
So why the confusing headlines lately?
Well, quite simply, La Niña creates a number of different scenarios for New Zealand’s various regions. Forget about what La Niña does for other countries – let’s just focus on us…
A strong La Niña can bring to New Zealand:
* More rain, humidity and cloud to northern and eastern NZ.
* More north easterly winds
* Droughts to western and southern parts of the country
* More heat (Dry and scorching hot in the south and west, sticky, humid and muggy in the north)
This means we can have news stories about La Niña that have headlines like:
* La Niña brings cooler seas to Pacific (around the equator, well away from NZ)
* La Niña brings warmer seas to South West Pacific (Coral Sea, Vanuatu, Fiji etc)
* La Niña means more tropical cyclones in South West Pacific (eg, New Caledonia)
* La Niña brings hotter weather to NZ
* La Niña may bring droughts to parts of NZ (Central Otago, South Canterbury – which we’ve been seeing this past month)
* La Niña may bring heavy rain to parts of NZ (Northland, Coromandel Peninsula, Auckland, Bay of Plenty, East Cape)
So, you can see why it’s a little confusing for some!
——————————————————————————————————————– Note that the BOM SSTA plot is now out of date.
Georgina Griffiths (NIWA) desperately wants us all to know that NZ “is running HOT HOT” (heard on TV3) but makes a wet prediction contrary to Renwick’s dry – they can’t get their story straight in-house.
——————————————————————————————————————— NZ set for humid summer
New Zealand is set for a humid summer, with experts predicting a warm and wet January and February.
Many parts of the country have already experienced warmer than usual weather for this time of year, and temperatures are going to continue to rise.
“We’ve been predicting average or above average temperatures for all of New Zealand. We’re certainly running about a degree and a half warmer than normal so far,” said National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research’s climate scientist Georgina Griffiths.
[Snip]
Although beachgoers will welcome the warmer weather, their spirits may be dampened by the amount of rain predicted for the summer months.
“That expectation of wet weather is in the North and East – Bay of Plenty, Gisborne, Auckland, Northland, Coromandel – they’re expecting normal to above normal rainfall for the whole season,” said Griffiths.
Early Frost Kills Crops in South, Drives Up Prices as Growers Try to Shield Produce
An unusually early blast of cold air is cloaking the southeast, forcing farmers to toil through the night to save their livestock and crops of strawberries, tender green beans and sweet corn.
In parts of Florida, hit Tuesday morning with a freeze not seen this early since 1937, some growers were already reporting severe frost burn and ruined plantings, reducing supply and driving up prices for winter vegetables amid the holiday season.
Florida growers endured a freeze and difficult spell of weather in January, “but now, the timing is more unfortunate because we are gearing up to put vegetables out for peoples’ holiday meals,” said Lisa Lochridge, spokeswoman for the Florida Fruit & Vegetable Association. The association was still determining total loss on Tuesday.
In Palm Beach County, the nation’s top producer of winter vegetables, the price of a bushel of green beans soared 62% Tuesday to between $24 and $26, compared to $14 to $16 over the weekend, said J.D. Poole, vice president of Pioneer Growers Cooperative in Belle Glade, Fla.
Frigid air from Canada pushed into the southeast Monday, bringing snow to mountains in Tennessee and West Virginia, cancelling schools in parts of North Carolina, and ushering in temperatures 15 to 20 degrees below normal in some places. The National Weather Service issued a freeze warning through Wednesday morning for most of Florida, the southeast corner of Alabama and southern Georgia.
While farming’s peak season is over in many regions of the country, it’s still in full swing throughout parts of the south—meaning farmers can get caught off guard by an early freeze. In Iron City, Ga., cattle farmer Yancy Trawick has erected a wall of hay in his field as a fort to protect his 75 newborn calves from the wind. “This is rough on them,” he said.
In Loxahatchee, Fla., workers at Hundley Farms were up all night into Tuesday, running warm water between crops of sweet corn and green beans to fend off frost. Starting at 3:40 a.m., six helicopters flew at varying levels back and forth over Hundley’s fields an in attempt to push the layer of warm air down on the crops, said Tom Perryman, crop supervisor.
Still, Tuesday morning revealed that about 30% of the crops were hurt by freeze, with delicate green beans the worse off, he said, adding, “And still have to get through tonight. I can’t remember a time when we had a freeze by Dec. 7,” he said.
Ms. Lochridge, of the Florida Fruit & Vegetable Association, said Florida’s growers of heartier citrus fruits have so far escaped any notable freeze damage, while some growers of strawberries, tomatoes, green beans, and sweet corn were reporting the tell-tale signs of frost burn.
In Belle Glade, fifth-generation farmer Stewart Stein said his sweet corn began “turning blackish green and slimy” right before his eyes Tuesday. As for his green beans, “the leaves will start drooping on the beans and wilting down,” he said.
He estimates he lost 150 acres of corn and 45 acres of green beans to frost. “It’ll take the wind out of your sails, that’s for sure,” he said.
“Gore effect” strikes Cancun Climate Conference 3 days in a row
Posted on December 8, 2010 by Anthony Watts
From the “weather is not climate department” – New record low temperatures set in Cancun for three straight days, and more new low temperature records are possible this week.
Dr. Roy Spencer, who is in Cancun representing climate skepticism on behalf of CFACT writes on his blog:
Today’s my first full day in Cancun at COP-16, and as I emerged from my hotel room I was greeted by a brisk, dry, cool Canadian breeze.
It was 54 deg. F in Cancun this morning — a record low for the date. (BTW, Cancun is nowhere near Canada).
Al Gore is not supposed to be here…but it could be that the Gore Effect has announced his secret arrival. We will check into this.
Here’s the record for today from Weather Underground:
The irony, it burns. Do you think maybe Gaia is trying to send the U.N. and the delegates a message? One record low was funny, three in a row was hilarious, a new record low for the month of December was ROFL, but now six straight days of record lows during the U.N. COP16 Global Warming conference? That’s galactically inconvenient. The whole month so far has averaged below normal:
Here’s today from Weather Underground, Today’s low was 55°F and the old record was 60°F in 1999:
the most important story today in my view is the one I put on News and I hope that Richard T will do a special article on it http://www.climatedepot.com/a/9035/SPECIAL-REPORT-More-Than-1000-International-Scientists-Dissent-Over-ManMade-Global-Warming-Claims–Challenge-UN-IPCC–Gore
a couple of quotes
More than 1000 dissenting scientists (updates previous 700 scientist report) from around the globe have now challenged man-made global warming claims made by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and former Vice President Al Gore. This new 2010 320-page Climate Depot Special Report — updated from 2007’s groundbreaking U.S. Senate Report of over 400 scientists who voiced skepticism about the so-called global warming “consensus” — features the skeptical voices of over 1000 international scientists, including many current and former UN IPCC scientists, who have now turned against the UN IPCC. This updated 2010 report includes a dramatic increase of over 300 additional (and growing) scientists and climate researchers since the last update in March 2009. This report’s release coincides with the 2010 UN global warming summit being held in Cancun.
Background: Only 52 Scientists Participated in UN IPCC Summary
…
The notion of “hundreds” or “thousands” of UN scientists agreeing to a scientific statement does not hold up to scrutiny. (See report debunking “consensus” LINK) Recent research by Australian climate data analyst John McLean revealed that the IPCC’s peer-review process for the Summary for Policymakers leaves much to be desired. (LINK) (LINK) (LINK) & (LINK) (Note: The 52 scientists who participated in the 2007 IPCC Summary for Policymakers had to adhere to the wishes of the UN political leaders and delegates in a process described as more closely resembling a political party’s convention platform battle, not a scientific process – LINK)
Proponents of man-made global warming like to note how the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) and the American Meteorological Society (AMS) have issued statements endorsing the so-called “consensus” view that man is driving global warming. But both the NAS and AMS never allowed member scientists to directly vote on these climate statements. Essentially, only two dozen or so members on the governing boards of these institutions produced the “consensus” statements. This report gives a voice to the rank-and-file scientists who were shut out of the process. (LINK)
New Zealand has illustrious participants as does Australia and thanks to all those who stood up against the ‘status quo’ from those of us like me who are not scientists
This is huge Val – the quotes and links are amazing. I follow this guys work:-
—————————————————————————————————————————
Prominent Geologist Dr. Easterbrook Slams Geological Society of America’s climate statement ‘as easily refuted by data that clearly shows no correlation between CO2 and global climate change’ visit site
Claims are ‘not supported by any tangible data at all’ — To embrace a dogma with no attempt to recognize any data contrary to CO2 is a very unscientific approach’
—————————————————————————————————————————-
The more than 300 additional scientists added to this report since March 2009 (21 months ago), represents an average of nearly four skeptical scientists a week speaking out publicly. The well over 1000 dissenting scientists are almost 20 times the number of UN scientists (52) who authored the media-hyped IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers.
—————————————————————————————————————————-
Big news Richard T. All the names that the warmists are trying to swat dawn.
I usually add some gentle humor to these reports. Not today. Read this and weep. Notwithstanding the carefully-orchestrated propaganda to the effect that nothing much will be decided at the UN climate conference here in Cancun, the decisions to be made here this week signal nothing less than the abdication of the West. The governing class in what was once proudly known as the Free World is silently, casually letting go of liberty, prosperity, and even democracy itself. No one in the mainstream media will tell you this, not so much because they do not see as because they do not bl**dy care.
The 33-page Note (FCCC/AWGLCA/2010/CRP.2) by the Chairman of the “Ad-Hoc Working Group on Long-Term Co-operative Action under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change”, entitled Possible elements of the outcome, reveals all. Or, rather, it reveals nothing, unless one understands what the complex, obscure jargon means. All UNFCCC documents at the Cancun conference, specifically including Possible elements of the outcome, are drafted with what is called “transparent impenetrability”. The intention is that the documents should not be understood, but that later we shall be told they were in the public domain all the time, so what are we complaining about?
The UN wants nothing less than 1.5% of our GDP.
That’s $212 billion from the USA every year ($2700 per family of 4).
That’s $32 billion from the UK every year ($2000 per family of 4).
That’s $13 billion from Australia every year ($2400 per family of 4).
Read in full the outcome being sought by the UN at the link above or at Jo Nova’s blog http://joannenova.com.au/
World Government!!!!!Communist style
and Richard T I hope the NZCSC will publicise this; I’ve sent a copy to the AustCSC
SYDNEY – Four deaths have been reported in severe flooding which has hit the eastern states of Australia this week.
The latest victim was in Queensland. Police have recovered the body of a 15-year-old boy who drowned at a flooded water hole on the Sunshine Coast.
Yesterday a man’s body was retrieved from a river at Nebo, west of Mackay. Witnesses said the impatient driver passed other cars stopped on the roadside waiting for the floodwaters to subside.
An 81-year-old man also died when his ute was swept off a flooded causeway and into a creek on Friday night.
And a 55-year-old woman died when her car was swept off a flooded roadway near Dysart, north-west of Rockhampton in central Queensland, last week.
Reports are calling NSW’s floods the worst inundation to hit the state in 50 years.
The swollen Queanbeyan River yesterday peaked in the NSW city neighbouring Canberra but residents forced to evacuate were not expected to be allowed home until late last night at the earliest.
If there is more rain they could be stranded for even longer.
The river cut Queanbeyan in half when it peaked at 8.4m in the afternoon. It had risen 3m in less than three hours.
The city has been declared a natural disaster area, taking the total number of declared areas across NSW to 30.
“The flood peak, we think, has already occurred on the river,” NSW Emergency Services Minister Steve Whan said in Queanbeyan.
“At 8.4m we’ve had the town cut in half. We’ve had around 100 houses and businesses which have been asked to evacuate.”
A number of houses and businesses were inundated and 10 people had to be rescued by boat from Trinculo Place, which runs alongside the Queanbeyan River just south of the King’s Highway.
An upstream river gauge indicates the river is now falling dramatically.
But NSW emergency services commissioner Murray Kear said it would take a further six hours “for the water to get down to any level where we could be confident to allow people back into their homes”.
Residents were given little warning of the flood because the river rose extraordinarily fast.
Water flowed from the nearby Googong Reservoir, which was already full before it received 103mm in the 22 hours to 9am yesterday.
The weather bureau is predicting the rain band that wreaked havoc in Queanbeyan will move north.
Authorities are worried it will pose problems for areas such as Coonamble in northwestern NSW.
The deluge that hit Queanbeyan and the nearby hills will also boost the volume of water flowing into the already swollen Murrumbidgee system. That will add, over the coming days, to the woes being experienced in Wagga Wagga and further downstream.
In Victoria, a man swept away by floodwaters north of Melbourne clung to a tree for five hours before he was rescued.
Police said the 51-year-old was walking home at about midnight in Whittlesea when he tried to wade across a waterway that had risen in a downpour and was swept 100m downstream. He managed to grab hold of a tree branch and hung on until about 5am, when he was found by people who heard his cries for help.
Water police rescued the man and he was taken to hospital, where he is expected to make a full recovery.
State Emergency Service workers took about 400 calls for help for flooding and building damage in Victoria’s northeast.
CHICAGO – A powerful winter storm roared across the upper Midwest on Sunday with high winds and mounds of snow closing roads in several states and canceling more than 1,400 flights in Chicago.
At least one weather-related death was reported Sunday as the storm system that dumped nearly 2 feet of snow in parts of Minnesota and caused the Metrodome’s inflatable, Teflon roof to collapse moved east. The Minnesota Vikings-New York Giants game was pushed to Monday night at Detroit’s Ford Field.
A blizzard warning was in effect Sunday for parts of eastern Iowa, southeastern Wisconsin, northwestern Illinois, and northern Michigan, according to the National Weather Service. Surrounding areas, including Chicago, were under winter storm warnings. “It’s going to be blustery,” said Ben Deubelbeiss, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Romeoville, Ill.
The winter weather, with blowing snow that severely limited visibility, wreaked havoc on air and road travel. In the Chicago area, wind gusts of up to 50 mph, temperatures in the teens, wind chills well below zero were expected along with up to 8 inches of snow.
More than 1,200 flights were canceled at O’Hare International Airport and more than 250 were canceled at Midway International Airport, Chicago Department of Aviation spokeswoman Karen Pride said. Both airports expected more cancellations and reported significant delays.
Major highways in several states were closed due to poor driving conditions and accidents.
New Zealand will have less snow by the end of the century, but not as little as initially thought, and better snow-making machines will help skifields cope, according to new climate modelling by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa).
It was the first time a quantitative assessment of the potential impact of climate change on snow levels has been done in New Zealand.
Niwa scientists created three different emissions scenarios, which were used to calculate how the different levels of climate change could affect snow levels for the years 2030-2049 and 2080-2099.
They found:
* On average, at nearly all elevations, there will be a gradual decrease in snow as the century progresses.
* The decrease is more marked at elevations below 1000m.
Depending on skifield location and elevation, under a warmer climate change scenario, by 2090, on average, current maximum snow depths at the upper elevation sites will be further reduced, to approximately 79 per cent to 35 per cent.
The reductions were less marked for mid-range climate change scenario.
“Fortunately for New Zealand, we are unlikely to see the more extreme impacts predicted in Europe and Australia. Our modelling shows that the loss may actually be less than originally anticipated and we should be able to continue to make snow, even under a more extreme climate scenario, right out to the 2090s,” said Niwa snow and ice scientist Jordy Hendrikx.
Scientists could now give ski areas detailed, localised information they can use to better undertake long-term planning for the future changes to natural snow levels.
Ski Areas Association of New Zealand executive director Miles Davison was “quite optimistic” about the modelling results.
“Most New Zealand ski areas already have snowmaking systems installed and this new information will really help us to understand and plan for the future changes which may be needed at different areas, based on their location and elevation.”
– NZPA
——————————————————————————————————————–
Perhaps Mr Davison should check Dr Renwick’s (NIWA) summer 2010 forecast of drier air, cloudless skies and dry conditions before relying on NIWA’s forecast for 2040 and 2090.
I wonder if these “modelling results” are from NIWA’s new HPCF UKMO UM model that gets it so spectacularly wrong in Britain?
Note that NIWA used “emissions scenarios” to model snow levels!
Call a monkey Mr Davison – they provide better predictions than NIWA.
New climate modelling shows seasonal snow levels at New Zealand ski areas will be reduced by the effects of climate change in the coming years, but the good news is the loss may actually be less than originally anticipated and we should be able to continue to make snow, even under a more extreme climate scenario.
This is the first time a quantitative assessment of the potential impact of climate change on snow levels has been done in New Zealand.
Using global climate trend data, taken from the climate models used for the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, NIWA scientists created three different emissions scenarios. These were then fed into a model specifically designed for New Zealand conditions, to show how the different scenarios could impact on snow levels for the 2040s (2030-2049) and the 2090s (2080-2099). Results were provided both for New Zealand as a whole and for individual ski areas.
The results show:
Nationally:
* On average, at nearly all elevation levels, there will be a gradual decrease in snow (including duration, and mean maximum snow accumulation) as the century progresses.
* The decrease in snow is more marked at elevations below 1000 metres but is evident at all but the highest elevations.
For individual ski areas (depending on their location and elevation):
* Under a mid-range climate change scenario, by 2040 there will be on average between 93% and 79% of the current maximum snow depths at the upper elevation sites, and by 2090 this, on average, will be further reduced, to approximately 80% to 54% of the current maximum snow depths.
* Under a warmer climate change scenario, by 2040 there will be on average between 92% and 72% of the current maximum snow depths at the upper elevation sites, and by 2090 this, on average, will be further reduced, to approximately 79% to 35% of the current maximum snow depths
* At lower elevations the decreases are even more pronounced.
* Under a mid-range climate change scenario, by 2040 there will be on average between 91% and 65% of the current maximum snow depths at the lower elevation sites, and by 2090 this, on average, will be further reduced, to approximately 68% to 20% of the current maximum snow depths.
* Under a warmer climate change scenario, by 2040 there will be on average between 83% and 45% of the current maximum snow depths at the lower elevation sites, and by 2090 this, on average, will be further reduced, to approximately 48% to 9% of the current maximum snow depths.
NIWA snow and ice scientist Dr Jordy Hendrikx says the new modelling confirms results from similar international studies.
“From these results we expect to see a gradual change in snow levels but fortunately for New Zealand, we are unlikely to see the more extreme impacts predicted in Europe and Australia. Our modelling shows that the loss may actually be less than originally anticipated and we should be able to continue to make snow, even under a more extreme climate scenario, right out to the 2090s. What’s really exciting about this work is that we can now give New Zealand ski areas detailed, localised information they can use to better undertake long term planning for the future changes to natural snow levels.”
Ski Areas Association of New Zealand executive director Miles Davison says the new modelling gives the industry useful information about how ski areas may need to be operated in the future.
“We are quite optimistic about these results. The sort of average percentage change predicted by 2040 under a mid-range scenario is actually much less than the current inter-annual variability in natural snow fall. We manage to deal with this annual variability now so we expect to comfortably deal with the average years of the 2040’s with snow making systems which have greater capacity, and from expected improvements in snow making technology which will provide for more efficient conversion of water to snow.”
“It’s obvious that if these predictions materialise we are going to need to make greater use of snowmaking technology in the coming years but we fully expect the necessary resources, the equipment and the ever improving technology that is used will ensure the forecast reductions in natural snowfall can be compensated for with snowmaking systems. That’s great news for the New Zealand skiing and snowboarding industry. Many other countries around the world are at far greater risk of their areas having to close, especially at lower elevations.”
“Most New Zealand ski areas already have snowmaking systems installed and this new information will really help us to understand and plan for the future changes which may be needed at different areas, based on their location and elevation.”
The modelling also looked at how many snowguns may be needed in the future to offset the loss in natural snow depth.
The new research is part of a project funded by the Ski Areas Association of New Zealand and the Foundation of Science, Research and Technology (FRST). Other projects, funded by FRST, are also looking at the impacts of climate change on water resources, flooding, glaciers and sea level rise.
——————————————————————————————————————–
The first results I’ve seen from NIWA’s HPCF – snow this time, and a snow/CO2 correlation apparently.
Next: water resources, glaciers and sea level rise.
The sea level rise study should be a doozy if the recent AU alarmism is anything to go by.
AUSTRALIA’S ski slopes could be completely bare of natural winter snow by 2050 unless concerted action is taken against global warming, according to a government-commissioned report that paints a grim picture of the effects of climate change on alpine areas.
The report, Caring for our Australian Alps Catchments, has found the Alps, which stretch from Victoria through New South Wales to the Australian Capital Territory, face an average temperature rise of between 0.6 and 2.9 degrees by 2050, depending on how much action the international community takes to combat climate change.
[…]
Rain, snow and other precipitation will decrease up to 24 per cent over the next four decades, accompanied by more bushfires, droughts, severe storms and rapid runoff, causing heavy erosion.
[…]
”The scenario that is most likely is that there will be less snow both in total and in area, and that we shift more to summer rainfall,” said study co-author Roger Good, a retired botanist with the NSW government.
”There won’t be snow that sits around and slowly melts as there has been in the past. There will be more storm events in summer and therefore faster run-off, which has a lot of potential impacts in terms of soil erosion and damage to vegetation. The worst-case scenario is that there will be no snow at all … only rainfall in both summer and winter.”
[…]
Ski fields should continue to get reasonable natural snow cover if the international community sticks to its ambition of keeping global carbon dioxide levels to 450 parts per million (ppm), up from the present 385 ppm, the report states.
But if less action is taken, leading to a concentration of 550 ppm, cover lasting more than 60 days could be reduced by up to 96 per cent by 2050.
As Britain’s top independent forecaster (a skeptic) again outwits his global warming adversaries in weather prediction, we examine what really separates the men from the boys in this hot topic.
Award Winning maverick forecaster, Piers Corbyn’s unparalled success in outperforming his rivals (global warming believers) is winning him deserved column inches in the British press.
The man who, in 2010 predicted a trio of major rare events (Pakistan floods, Moscow heatwave, Britain’s brutal winter) gives us a rare glimpse into why he’s so successful, to the great embarrassment of his main rivals, the Met Office.
Seasonal rainfall is likely to be below normal in the western South Island, normal or below normal in the north of the South Island, normal or above normal in the north and east of the North Island, and normal elsewhere. On average, La Niña summers tend to exhibit a gradient in rainfall in the north and east of the North Island, tending to be wetter in eastern Northland, coastal Bay of Plenty and Gisborne, and drier farther south and inland. Although rainfall is likely to be normal or above normal in the north and east of the North Island, summer soil moisture levels and river flows are likely to be normal or below normal in those regions, because of the already dry conditions. River flows and soil moisture levels are very likely to be below normal in the west and south of the South Island, and are likely to be near normal or below normal in all other regions, according to the National Climate Centre’s latest seasonal outlook.
“normal or below normal in the north of the South Island”
Clean up begins after storm inflicts worst flooding in 150 years
5:30 AM Thursday Dec 30, 2010
The clean-up has begun after Tuesday’s fast-moving storm brought heavy rain and strong winds to the South Island – and caused the worst flooding in 150 years in Golden Bay.
The extent of the damage to roads and infrastructure in Tasman and Marlborough is still not clear, but councils and civil defence staff in the regions met yesterday to organise the clean-up.
China, US wheat crops face ‘serious trouble’
April 1, 2011 – 5:36PM
Wheat crops in China, the world’s biggest consumer, and the US, the largest exporter, face “serious trouble” if La Nina weather patterns linger, extending damage to the nations’ harvests, British Weather Services said.
The two countries will be the last to emerge from the dry conditions linked to the weather event, which has also caused heavy flooding in Australia and Canada and drought in Argentina.
Dry weather will linger for the next two months, parching wheat crops that have already deteriorated in Texas and Oklahoma, and are preventing much-needed rains from reaching northern China, British Weather Services and forecaster Telvent DTN Inc. said.
The Sun heats the surface of the Earth. Warm air at the surface is less dense than the cold air above it, causing convection. The rising air expands and cools – while the sinking air compresses and heats. If the lapse rate is greater than the adiabatic lapse rate (10C per km) the air is unstable and storms can form. If the lapse rate is less than the adiabatic lapse rate, the air is stable and storms don’t form (i.e. inversion.)
When cold air overrides warm moist air (like in North Carolina over the weekend) the lapse rate gets very large and violent storms form.
Blaming global warming for tornadoes is freaking stupid (i.e. Time Magazine) because tornadoes usually require passage of a strong cold front.
By Janet Raloff
Web edition : Tuesday, May 24th, 2011
[Snip]
Alexander Michaud’s new research was triggered by a June storm that pummeled Montana State University’s campus in Bozeman last year with golf ball–sized and larger hailstones. The microbial ecologist normally studies subglacial aquatic environments in Antarctica. But after saving 27 of the hailstones, he says, “I suddenly realized, no one had really ever thought about studying hailstones — in a layered sense — for biology.”
So his team dissected the icy balls, along with hundreds of smaller ones collected during a July hail storm south of campus. Michaud now reports finding germs throughout, with the highest concentrations by far — some 1,000 cells per milliliter of meltwater — in the hailstones’ cores.
Since at least the 1980s, scientists have argued that some share of clouds, and their precipitation, likely traces to microbes. Their reasoning: Strong winds can loft germs many kilometers into the sky. And since the 1970s, agricultural scientists have recognized that certain compounds made by microbes serve as efficient water magnets around which ice crystals can form at relatively high temperatures (occasionally leading to frost devastation of crops).
Widespread snow cover over New Zealand’s South Island as well as parts of the country’s North Island can be seen in these natural-colour images taken on Wednesday and Thursday, by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite.
Heavy snow fell in many parts of the North and South Islands of New Zealand on Monday and Tuesday, causing major disruption, closing schools, roads and airports.
Monday was the coldest day ever recorded in Auckland, New Zealand’s largest city. The last time snow settled on the ground in Auckland was in 1939. However, overall temperatures in New Zealand were colder and the quantity of snow was a lot worse in the 1930 event, according to weather historian Erick Brenstrom.
THE Antarctic ozone hole, yawning open longer than usual, is topping out this year as one of the larger holes ever recorded.
[…]
”Year to year variability in the weather can effect the scale of the ozone hole significantly,”
[…]
The UN’s Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion report concluded that the Antarctic hole drove changes in surface winds over southern hemisphere mid and high latitudes, and was linked to warming of the Southern Ocean.
UK Met Office Pours Cold Water On Severe Winter 2011-12 Forecasts by Mark Dunphy
The UK Met Office has distanced itself from recent media reports that the UK and Ireland are set for an ‘Arctic Winter’. The UKMO, which stopped issuing seasonal forecasts in 2010, also has said that recent long range forecasts by other agencies “bear no relation to the kinds of weather that forecasters at the Met Office are currently expecting”.
Sea surface temperatures are likely to remain above average to the northeast of the North Island during summer, but near average elsewhere about the New Zealand region.
Niwa has conceded last month’s record-breaking rain and flooding was a far cry from the average rainfall predicted in its summer weather outlook.
The outlook for November to January was for near-normal rainfall across the country, with temperatures near average in the North Island and above average in the South Island.
Instead, wet weather lashed the country and a state of emergency was declared in Nelson last month following record-breaking rainfalls that closed roads, caused flooding and slips and forced households to evacuate.
Niwa principal climate scientist James Renwick today said the pre-summer outlook did not turn out quite as expected, but…….
Are the New Zealand NIWA Outlooks as useless as those of the Australian BoM ?
January 8th, 2012 by Warwick Hughes
Readers have pointed out to me the huge rain totals for various parts of Aotearoa for December 2011. So I checked the NIWA 3 month Outlook for December-February issued on 1st Dec 2011.
With some temperatures for January getting into double figures and as we throw off our hats, scarves and gloves on many of those days – we could be forgiven for thinking spring has sprung.
But we are still officially in winter. Spring does not start until March.
[…]
So with climate change can we expect to see more of the mild temperatures?
Accelerating Global Warming Getting Ready To Shock-Freeze Europe!
By P Gosselin on 29. January 2012
[See plot]
Forecast temperature anomaly for January 27 – February 4 (This chart will be turning purple in the days ahead)
Reader DirkH brings our attention to a weather warning for the next two weeks from wetter.t-online.de, which warns that temperatures in parts of Germany may plunge to 25°C below zero.
Sure enough, we can add Glenshesk daffodils in County Antrim Northern Ireland to the list of untrustworthy weather forecasters (UK Met, NIWA, CSIRO, BOM).
Glenshesk River
Current Weather: Temperature 0C
Tomorrow: High 1C, Low -2C
Earth Simulator Supercomputer Used to Forecast 2012 Climate Patterns
January 31, 2012
TOKYO, Jan. 31 –Professor Toshio Yamagata, Dean of University of Tokyo Graduate School of Science and Head of the Application Laboratory of Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), has announced seasonal climate predictions for 2012 which are strongly influenced by only recently understood climate variations in the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
[…]
Prof. Yamagata used the JAMSTEC giant Earth Simulator supercomputer – one of the largest and fastest computers on the planet – to develop his new model of climate change, one that combines meteorology and oceanography. Supported by his own version of a complex atmosphere-and-ocean-based model (the SINTEX-F1 coupled general circulation model), he discovered and confirmed the new phenomenon in the Indian Ocean that is similar to the El Nino and La Nina phenomena in the Pacific Ocean. Because the newly discovered phenomenon oscillates between “positive” and “negative” sea surface temperature patterns, he named it “Indian Ocean Dipole”. By using the Earth Simulator to run his new model of climate variations, the group, led by Prof. Yamagata, succeeded in making the world’s first prediction of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event in 2006.
Based on this research, Professor Yamagata predicted the massive flooding in Thailand last year. “In 2011, we observed both the IOD in the Indian Ocean and La Nina in the Pacific Ocean. When we see the IOD pattern, we can expect heavy rain over Indo-China. And La Nina also brings heavy rain in this region, so it was likely that the region would receive a double punch of torrential rain. Actually, our model predicted that,” according to the professor.
[…]
The IOD phenomenon is quite similar to El Nino, which occurs in the tropical region of the Pacific Ocean. In the IOD, the surface temperature of the ocean begins to drop in the eastern Indian Ocean (off the coast of Java), while it rises from the central to the western Indian Ocean (extending to the coast of Kenya). In response to these oceanic temperature changes, the easterly wind at the equator becomes stronger. This IOD phenomenon usually develops in May or June, reaches a peak in October, and fades away in December.
It is now clear that this phenomenon can lead to droughts in Indonesia or Australia while producing massive flooding in parts of east Africa such as Kenya. In addition, it has a significant impact on summer monsoons, leading to heavy rain from northern India to the Indochinese peninsula and southern China, and also produces exceptionally hot weather in eastern Asia and western Japan, including the area around Okinawa. It has also been reported that this phenomenon is closely linked to severe hot weather patterns in the European Mediterranean.
“new model of climate change, one that combines meteorology and oceanography. Supported by his own version of a complex atmosphere-and-ocean-based model” – interesting.
Sea Surface Temperature in Indian Ocean Acts as Predictor for
Following Year’s El Niño
– Influence of Indian Ocean Dipole on El Niño First Revealed –
Japan Agency for Marine-earth Science and Technology
Graduate School of Science, the University of Tokyo
February 22, 2010 Press Release
Overview
El Niño and La Niña events in the tropical Pacific Ocean induce anomalous weather patterns around the world, with significant socio-economic impacts. The occurrence of El Niño/La Niña now may have become more predictable, thanks to the study conducted by a team of scientists from the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology(JAMSTEC), Graduate School of Science of the University of Tokyo, and the French Research Institute for Exploration of the Sea(IFREMER).The team confirmed that the El Niño/La Niña occurrence is strongly influenced by the negative/positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole(*1), the Indian Ocean equivalent of ENSO, and its occurrence is predictable with great precision beyond a year ahead, by use of sea surface temperature (SST) data in the Indian Ocean.
Combined with an IOD forecast model, the finding will serve to increase the predictability of climate fluctuations responsible for abnormal weather patterns, as early as around 20 months prior to their occurrences. This will allow people to better prepare against extreme weather conditions and help reduce impacts of possible disasters.
Their work will be published in the online issue of science journal Nature Geoscience on February 22. [2012]
Title: Influence of the state of the Indian Ocean Dipole on following year’s El Niño
Authors: Takeshi Izumo, Jerome Vialard, Matthieu Lengaigne, Clement de Boyer Montegut, Swadhin K. Behera, Jing-Jia Luo, Sophie Cravatte, Sebastien Masson and Toshio Yamagata
No news in the JAMSTEC Application Laboratory forecast (see link previous comment) of a big ol’ El Nino on the way. They’re only out to 5-6 months so far and all they have predicted is:-
1) El Nino Forecast: A La Nina condition will continue in the [NH] winter and spring, and begin to dissipate in the [NH] summer.
No doubt the proprietor of Hot Topic would take the leap that: well, a big ol’ El Nino will be upon us in the SH spring 2012 and global warming will be back on track.
I note that Bryan Leyland’s prediction of “continued cool conditions until Aug 2012 at least” is consistent with the JAMSTEC AL prediction of “A La Nina condition will continue in the [NH] winter and spring, and begin to dissipate in the [NH] summer”
Discussion and comparison of recent conditions with historic La Niña events
Klaus Wolter
Stay tuned for the next update (by March 10th, or earlier – ICOADS appears to be less threatened for now [funding issues]) to see where the MEI will be heading next. La Niña has staged a comeback similar to 2008-09, and consistent with expectations formulated right here well over a year ago: big La Niña events have a strong tendency to re-emerge after ‘taking time off’ during northern hemispheric summer. Based on current atmosphere-ocean conditions, I believe the odds for this La Niña event to continue right through early summer (June-July 2012) are just about 50%. Beyond that, it is worth noting that four of the ten two-year La Niña events between 1900 and 2009 ended up as a three-year event, so I would put the odds for this to occur in 2012-13 at 40% right now. The remaining six cases all switched to El Niño, leaving not a single ENSO-neutral case. The year 2012 promises to remain “interesting”. If and when something new transpires on the fate of ICOADS and the MEI, I will communicate it right on this webpage.
[Also,]
Overall, the reputation of the SOI as being a ‘noisy’ ENSO index remains well deserved.
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
9 February 2012
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
Synopsis: La Niña is likely to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during March-May 2012.
A majority of models predict La Niña to weaken through the rest of the Northern Hemisphere winter 2011-12, and then to dissipate during the spring 2012 (Fig. 6).
The Southern Oscillation Index, or SOI, gives an indication of the development and intensity of El Niño or La Niña events in the Pacific Ocean. The SOI is calculated using the pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin.
Sustained negative values of the SOI greater than −8 often indicate El Niño episodes. These negative values are usually accompanied by sustained warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, a decrease in the strength of the Pacific Trade Winds, and a reduction in winter and spring rainfall over much of eastern Australia and the Top End. You can read more about historical El Niño events and their effect on Australia in the Detailed analysis of past El Niño events.
Sustainted positive values of the SOI greater than +8 are typical of a La Niña episode. They are associated with stronger Pacific trade winds and warmer sea temperatures to the north of Australia. Waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become cooler during this time. Together these give an increased probability that eastern and northern Australia will be wetter than normal. You can read more about historical La Niña events and their effect on Australia in the Detailed analysis of past La Niña events.
The ENSO Wrap-Up includes the latest 30-day SOI value, as well as other information on indicators of El Niño and La Niña events.
La Niña conditions showed only small changes over the past fortnight and are expected to maintain an influence upon Australian climate over the coming months.
Over the past fortnight, sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific cooled slightly, reversing the recent warming trend. However other indicators of La Niña, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds, and cloudiness over the equatorial Pacific Ocean have generally remained steady, below their December peak but clearly exceeding La Niña thresholds.
Climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate a gradual decline in the strength of the La Niña over the coming months, with most models suggesting a return to neutral conditions during the southern autumn.
Norwegeian Climate Scientist Tore Furevik Says Cooling “La Niña Will Not Be Going Away”
It wasn’t all that long ago when a number of climate scientists were projecting the Earth would soon fall into an almost permanent, increasing El Niño mode, where the surface temperatures of the equatorial Pacific would always be like what we saw in 1998 – all man-made.
Today a number of German-language papers are reporting that Norwegian scientist Tore Furevik of the Bjerknes Centre of the University of Bergen says he expects the opposite to happen at least this year. Furevik says that La Niña may come back for third straight year. “The situation is simlar to the previous year,” he says.
Die Welt here writes that “there are no signs that La Nina is going to disappear anytime soon” and that according to Norwegian experts “it will occur even more strongly than in 2011″
[…]
Furevik’s La Niña forecast contradicts the experts’ forecast, where an ensemble of models show the trend towards an El Niño for the 2nd half of the year:
“At cross-ENSO Schwabe-timescale, the solar cycle spatiotemporally modulates zonal westerly winds — i.e. it cyclically ( http://i46.tinypic.com/2yw7711.png ) drives variations in this pattern:”
Written by Jonathan DuHamel, Tucson Citizen | June 27 2012
The British Meteorological Office has a new weather-forecasting super-computer built at a cost of 41 million pounds sterling (approximately $65 million) . The computer is touted to be more powerful than 100,000 standard PCs, is capable of 1,000 billion calculations every second, and uses 1.2 megawatts of energy to run – enough to power a small town. The head of the Met office claims that this new computer “will enable the Met Office to deliver more accurate forecasts, from hours to a century ahead.”
Let’s see how it is doing so far. On 23 March 2012, the computer produced a forecast for the next three months: “The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favors drier-than-average conditions for April-May-June as a whole, and also slightly favors April being the driest of the 3 months. With this forecast, the water resources situation in southern, eastern and central England is likely to deteriorate further during the April-May-June period.”
And here is what happened:
April: 2012 had wettest April for 100 years, Met Office says “It has been the wettest April in the UK for over 100 years, with some areas seeing three times their usual average, figures from the Met Office show. Some 121.8mm of rain has fallen, beating the previous record of 120.3mm which was set in 2000.”
June: June on course to be wettest in a century: Flooding, storms and persistent showers have blighted the country in recent weeks putting this June in line to become one of the soggiest in 100 years.
25 June: Spring is wettest in Britain for 250 years – England and Wales are on course for the wettest late spring and early summer for 250 years, experts said yesterday. June has just seen its fourth washout weekend and yet more downpours are forecast. Now it is feared combined rainfall for April, May and June will break the record of 13.2in (336mm) set in 1782 and be the highest since records began in 1766.
I had the pleasure of experiencing the “wettest ever drought” first hand in the UK
There were still hosepipe bans in place whilst the paddocks were waterlogged.
Of course, the real failure was the lack of investment in infrastructure, but why waste a good “climate change” story?
Ha! Media willing up a “scorching” El Nino, and a farmers pragmatic response:-
Rising ocean temperatures have tide turning in favour of scorching sibling El Nino
OUR dams are full, the lambs are fat and the sprinklers are running again. But weather experts are warning Australia’s east coast to brace for a return to dry conditions, perhaps even drought, as another El Nino event looms.
[…]
Wayne Dunford, a farmer who runs sheep and grows crops on his property west of Parkes, described the dry predictions as ”a blip in the weather pattern”.
”You don’t metaphorically go and slash your wrists because the [climate indicators] have fallen … because that happens quite often, and it doesn’t mean we are going into another drought,” he said.
This El Nino has as much and possibly greater probability to be short-lived, weak and back to neutral around early new year as it has to be long-lived, strong and regime changing..
Snow has fallen across a large part of NSW and the ACT, closing roads and disrupting public transport.
Goulburn residents woke to snow this morning, as did people in Katoomba, Mt Blackheath, Mt Victoria and Mittagong. There have been reports of snow in the Blue Mountains and Southern Highlands, while Canberra has received 10 centimetres.
Two major roads have been closed by the snow – The Great Western Highway in both directions at Wentworth Falls, and Bell’s Line of Road at mt Tomah. Sydney Ferries has cancelled the Manly service due to the weather, and trains and buses have also been affected.
Yesterday, South Australia witnessed a once-in-a-century October snowfall.
The Bureau of Meteorology says the snow is a result of a very cold air mass that has moved across NSW. The air mass has caused a deep low to form on the south coast which has produced the snow.
“The atmosphere is yet to show any response to warmer than normal sea surface temperatures”
What warmer than normal SSTs? The anomaly is -1.55 C all around NZ and I cannot believe the cold air coming off the sea at MtM at the moment even though there’s sunny skies:-
“Last year, NIWA forecast there would be a an early start to summer with a La Nina weather pattern, however most of the country was drenched with rain in early December.
In March this year NIWA confirmed New Zealand had been short changed on summer , with records showing cloudiness, cool temperatures and above average rainfall plagued the period between December and February.
Do you believe NIWA’s predictions? Have a say on our Facebook page . ”
# # #
I don’t believe NIWA’s current prognosis let alone predictions.
Two particular subgroups of ACC-questioning mainstream scientists that emerged from my research among atmospheric scientists were two kinds of research meteorologists: the (by definition physics-strong and theoretical) dynamicists and more empirical research meteorologists with past training in synoptic methods and weather prediction. – Myanna Lahsen
An interesting paper was sent to me by Douglas Sheil, which provides some insights into skepticism in the meteorological research community.
Anatomy of Dissent: A Cultural Analysis of Climate Skepticism
Temperature: Forecast Thursday 20th June to Tuesday 25th June
The charts below show detailed temperature information with values at 20 minute intervals. This data is of particular interest to the sport of horse racing. The green line with dashes indicates the expected un-shaded grass surface temperature. The blue line indicates the expected air temperature in a shaded well ventilated spot. The purple line indicates the expected temperature of the race track sub soil at a depth of 10cm. The red line indicates the expected dew point temperature in a shaded and well ventilated spot. Where the blue air temperature line on the chart meets or crosses the dew temperature line you can expect to see an increasing chance and amount of dew forming on the track.
10 °C soil is about the threshold when plant growth activity shuts down. Eden Park’s sub soil forecast is mostly above that, Carisbrook is down around 0 – 2 °C.
“Furthermore, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) – a measure of the atmospheric pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin in Australia and a lead indicator of El Nino conditions – has risen over the past two weeks and has generally remained around +8 to +10. The latest approximate 30-day SOI value to 15 June is +10.3. Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Nina Pacific Ocean cooling event rather than a warming event.”
Mixed Signals Continue Over 2014 El Nino Development
23.06.2014
Latest data shows Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies weakening, the key 30-day SOI metric remaining positive while computer model forecasts continue to predict only modest warming into the future with no certainty that the El Nino threshold will be exceeded.
‘Peru says El Nino threat over, waters cooling and fish returning’
Reuters, July 4, 2014 7:23 PM
LIMA (Reuters) – The worst of the potentially disastrous weather pattern El Nino is now behind Peru and cooling sea temperatures are luring back schools of anchovy, the key ingredient in fishmeal, authorities said on Friday.
Temperatures in Peru’s Pacific peaked in June, rising 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 Fahrenheit) above average levels, but have since retreated and will likely return to normal by August, the state committee that studies El Nino said.
“The possibility of us seeing an extraordinary Nino is ruled out,” said German Vasquez, the head of the committee.
Peru is the world’s top fishmeal exporter, producing about a third of worldwide supply. The industry is concentrated along the South American country’s northern and central coast.
Cold-water anchovy that swam south to escape warmer sea temperatures that arrived in April are making their way back now, Vasquez said.
“Anchovy are coming north,” Vasquez said. “There are already fish in the center of the country, but they’re still very close to the coast and not yet at their usual depth.”
‘El Nino forecasts flop as puzzled scientists hunt for answers’
Brian K. Sullivan, February 6, 2015
When it comes to El Nino, 2014-15 may be the years that launched a thousand academic papers.
Since last March, forecasters have said an El Nino was on the way. The only trouble is, it hasn’t arrived. Call it the period of the phantom El Nino, a shimmering siren of weather patterns yet to come that has been seen fluttering in the sparkling waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
While every El Nino sparks research, this one — or the lack thereof — is certain to prompt even more. Part of the reason is that while some global weather patterns reacted as though an El Nino was taking place, the main characteristics of the phenomenon never materialized. If there’s anything scientists hate, it’s not understanding why something happened.
“One thing that stands out on this ENSO is how wrong the models were in predicting a major event in 2014,” said Matt Rogers, president of Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland.
“The nation-wide average temperature for 2015 was 12.7°C (0.1°C above the 1981–2010 annual average), using NIWA’s seven-station temperature series which begins in 1909. 2015 was the 27th-warmest year since 1909, based on this seven-station series.”
‘A Warming Arctic Would Not Cause Increased Severe Weather or Temperature Extremes’
by Chuck Wiese, Meteorologist, Weatherwise, Inc.
This paper is a critique Francis and Vavrus (2012), hereinafter FV (2012), by atmospheric scientists Jennifer Francis from Rutgers University and Steve Vavrus of the University of Wisconsin.
[…]
CONCLUSIONS
FV (2012) cited in the introduction of this article is fatally flawed, incorrect and should be withdrawn by the authors. As shown here, there is no theoretical basis in which to ground FV (2012). Using the proper Rossby wave physics as illustrated here, these atmospheric waves (or commonly called planetary atmospheric waves that generate low and high pressure systems that create our weather, severe and otherwise) behave in the opposite fashion as claimed in FV (2012).
A warming Arctic that is supposed to be weakening the westerly wind belt across the northern hemisphere would create an entirely different effect on the earth’s weather as FV (2012) claims. If FV (2012) claims were true, the physics governing these waves would require them to flatten in amplitude and migrate to a higher latitude, causing a much weakened effect on the Northern Hemisphere’s weather patterns.
If FV (2012) claims were true, precipitation systems would weaken and migrate northward with the migrating jet stream. Storms, severe and otherwise would become far less common than today and would be replaced with problematic drought and much higher surface absolute and relative humidities. This increased low level moisture would lead to sporadic showers and thunderstorms in an ever expanding maritime tropical airmass environment, but not enough precipitation to forestall severe droughts.
By severe droughts, I don’t mean regional droughts such as those experienced recently in California. But rather, droughts that would expand into a worldwide regime. Present-day droughts are nothing more than cyclical changes in the earth’s climate system that have very definitive and repetitive cycles.
What is particularly disturbing about FV (2012) is not only is it incorrect and flawed, but it passed peer review. Now, after publication, FV (2012) has been lapped up by media, touted and referenced in their severe weather stories that report on hurricanes, tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, heat, cold, drought and any other weather calamity as “proof” their paper is correct. Nothing could be further from the truth.
The reader needs to understand that anytime we experience severe weather, it is proof that adequate COLD in the high latitudes and Arctic has been generated by the normal radiational cooling process by the earth that creates the adequate potential energy across the latitude lines to cause amplification of the jet stream waves and speeds that pushes this colder air southward to warmer latitudes that then creates the necessary temperature gradients to liberate that energy, creating storms as well as high pressure systems.
If the occurrence of severe weather is increasing worldwide, it is not a sign of a warming earth. It is the opposite of what climate hysteria claims, and an indication of a cooling, not warming earth.
The continued misuse, abuse and general trashing of important principles founded with atmospheric science remains as deplorable as ever by the groups promoting global warming from human CO2 emissions or by these same groups promoting climate hysteria by re-labeling this term “climate change”.
Now that the flawed FV (2012) passed peer review, it allows media to blame any severe weather on “climate change.” FV (2012) allows media to claim a wavier jet stream dips and meanders because the Arctic is supposedly getting warmer. All this is sheer nonsense and all demonstrably wrong.
I believe this flawed FV (2012) also shows how the quality of the scientific peer review process has been lowered in “climate science”.
“FV (2012) … is fatally flawed, incorrect and should be withdrawn by the authors. As shown here, there is no theoretical basis … to … FV (2012). Using the proper Rossby wave physics as illustrated here, these atmospheric waves … behave in the opposite fashion as claimed in FV (2012).”
Sounds like this has been in the textbooks for decades. Why only now does a scientist who knows the physics explain it to us, or why has it taken us so long to notice it?
Still, this is deadly to the panic stirred up by the warmies, like so much else that is now surfacing. Well done, Richard.
RT >”Why only now does a scientist who knows the physics explain it to us”
It took a qualified meteorologist who probably had a guts full of the back-to-front stuff from Francis and Vavrus who operate in the same discipline. Well done Chuck Wiese.
Climate scientists are not meteorologists as a matter of course. Wratt and Renwick are close with PhDs in atmospheric physics and sciences respectively but they are not degreed meteorologists as I understand. Jennifer Francis does have a B.S. in Meteorology.
From Wiki:
Meteorology is the interdisciplinary scientific study of the atmosphere. The study of meteorology dates back millennia, though significant progress in meteorology did not occur until the 18th century. The 19th century saw modest progress in the field after weather observation networks were formed across broad regions. Prior attempts at prediction of weather depended on historical data. It wasn’t until after the elucidation of the laws of physics and, more particularly, the development of the computer, allowing for the automated solution of the great many equations that model the weather, in the latter half of the 20th century that significant breakthroughs in weather forecasting were achieved.
Meteorological phenomena are observable weather events that are explained by the science of meteorology. Meteorological phenomena are described and quantified by the variables of Earth’s atmosphere: temperature, air pressure, water vapor, mass flow, and the variations and interactions of those, and how they change over time. Different spatial scales are used to describe and predict weather on local, regional, and global levels.
Meteorology, climatology, atmospheric physics, and atmospheric chemistry are sub-disciplines of the atmospheric sciences. Meteorology and hydrology compose the interdisciplinary field of hydrometeorology
Meteorology makes no recourse to the theoretical radiative physics of the greenhouse effect to determine temperature anywhere in the atmosphere or surface e.g. nightly TV weather forecasts. Same for the space race. The US Air Force Labs modeled atmospheric temperature from surface to top of atmosphere without recourse to the greenhouse effect, first in 1963 and updated in 1976.
Warmies are adamant that only the greenhouse effect can explain surface temperature, but they can’t model with those theoretical priciples for daily weather as do meteorologists. Unfortunately there are those in meteorology, like Francis and Vavrus, who being unable to usefully adopt the greenhouse effect in their discipline, twist the principles of meteorology to get on board the climate gravy train and to gain go-to prominence.
Francis and Vavrus ideas have been accepted as fact by the US media where they have gained plenty traction, especially Francis. But not much support from the meteorological or climate community (except in peer review that is).
Interesting Guest post by Ed Thurstan of Sydney, Australia
Synopsis
This study shows that the NOAA maintained GHCN V2 database contains errors in calculating a Mean temperature from a Maximum and a Minimum. 144 years of data from 36 Australian stations are affected.
Means are published when the underlying Maximums and/or Minimums have been rejected.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/11/10/gross-data-errors-in-ghcn-v2-for-australia/#more-27653
Mount Merapi SO2 plume headed for Australia
Posted on November 10, 2010 by Anthony Watts
Indonesia’s Mount Merapi volcano put a lot of ejecta into the air; ash, CO2, and SO2.
A plume of sulfur dioxide from Indonesia’s deadly Mount Merapi volcano is swirling through the upper atmosphere over western Australia. This 7-day movie from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) onboard Europe’s MetOp satellite shows the plume in motion, and it could soon swirl across the entire continent. Sky watchers in Australia should be alert for volcanic sunsets.
Parliament of the Commonwealth of Australia
Inquiry into long-term meteorological forecasting in Australia
© Commonwealth of Australia
Report, 23 November 2009
2.69
The Committee was astounded to learn that private enterprises are apparently able to forecast particular seasonal conditions and events, which may not necessarily have been forecast by our leading national agencies. The question that came to the mind of Committee members when this issue came to light was “how did you forecast these events and why didn’t anyone else?” When considering the skills, knowledge and expertise in our national agencies, the question that came to mind was “what do they know that CSIRO and the Bureau don’t?”
———————————————————————————————————————–
For the answers to these questions see:-
Solar – Cosmic Ray Flux Relationship
WHAT IS THE MAIN FACTOR CONTROLLING THE MURRAY DARLING BASIN SYSTEM RAINFALL (SOUTH QLD-NEW SOUTH WALES-VICTORIA & SOUTH AUSTRALIA AREAS)?
The Watts and Copeland Sinusoidal Solar-Lunar Model
Inquiry into long-term meteorological forecasting in Australia
Recommendation 1
The Committee recommends that CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology provide to the Australian Government a report with detailed explanatory information as to why a particular dynamic forecasting model or system was chosen for use in Australia. The report should be completed by the end of 2010.
Recommendation 2
The Committee recommends that weather and climate variables and influences, for example, particulates, be identified, thoroughly examined to assess their degree of impact on our weather and climate, and incorporated into forecasting models as necessary. Priority areas for incorporating these variables should be published.
Recommendation 3
The Committee recommends that the Australian Government increase funding for research into the effects of weather and climate variables such as El Nino and Indian Ocean Dipole that impact on Australia’s forecasting abilities.
Recommendation 4
The Committee recommends that the Australian Government conduct a short review to determine what supercomputing facilities are required by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology to conduct crucial forecasting operations and research. Any additional funding to increase supercomputing capacity should be made available as a priority so that all model research, development and application can be undertaken in Australia.
Recommendation 5
The Committee recommends that the Australian Government undertake an audit of weather stations that contribute data to forecasting models, to ensure that they comply with World Meteorological Organization guidelines. All necessary actions should be taken to ensure that all stations comply.
Recommendation 6
The Committee recommends that the Australian Government budgets for the purchase, installation and maintenance of additional weather stations in critical areas around the country. There should be broad consultation to consider the number of new stations needed and their placement.
Recommendation 7
The Committee recommends that the Bureau of Meteorology employment conditions be reviewed and that a more secure tenure be provided to relevant staff, including increasing contracts from three years to five years.
Recommendation 8
The Committee recommends that the Australian Government establish an institute of meteorological science to develop an ongoing partnership between relevant research bodies and implement a coordinated research agenda.
One of the committee members was Dennis Jensen who is calling for a Royal Commission into AGW science
see his article here:
http://www.quadrant.org.au/blogs/doomed-planet/2010/09/climate-royal-commission
It seems to be that the most costly, ineffectual and redundant option is opted for just at the end of a crisis immediately prior to the situation turning around.
We have a classic example in New Zealand of a Synfuel plant the the govt funded at great expense then sold for a pittance once the end of the 70s oil crisis rendered it uneconomic.
I was just starting work in ’73 so in my youthful wisdom I thought the Synfuel plant was a wonderful idea.
It would not have mattered which GCM (they chose UKMO core) the CSIRO (or NIWA) went with from the current models because natural cycles are not parameterized in any configurations.
The only way that for example, a climate shift can be simulated (or mimiced) is to use Stochastic modeling where statistical methods and probability are used to generate random outcomes. There is no predictive capability from this approach however, because there is no way to get the timing right as is the case with volcanic activity in GCMs.
A better approach IMO is to incorporate natural cycles in the parameters of GCMs. But then supercomputers are not required for prediction as Ian Holton of Holton Weather Forecasting Pty Ltd has demonstrated.
And not just Ian Holton, This seen at JoNova:-
i.e. The CSIRO supercomputed GCM prediction of continuing drought has led to the construction of expensive and redundant desalination plants in Australia when simple consultation of long-term rainfall records should have prompted the construction of reservoirs instead.
The use of supercomputers in the current configuration of the models for the prediction of rainfall is akin to the use of a D9 Bulldozer to drive in a carpet tack – and just as ineffective.
Warwick Hughes assessment:
“…this Inquiry is now dead and buried”
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=705
“I have just been told by a House of Reps Clerk that – “Due to the change in Committee allocations, there is no longer a Standing Committee on Industry, Science and Innovation.” I think this code for – “…this Inquiry is now dead and buried”.
IMHO this so called “Inquiry” was all just a thinly veiled campaign to justify wringing more taxpayers money from Govt to fund BoM ongoing incompetence.”
Could the Australian BOM get it more wrong?
Posted on December 23rd, 2010 – JoNova
Warwick Hughes has spotted a neat trifecta: whether it be rain, maximums or minimums, the BOM gets it wrong.
For this spring the Australian BOM predicted it would be dry and warm, instead we got very wet and quite cold. The models are so bad on a regional basis, it’s uncannily like they are almost useful… if they call things “dry”, expect “wet”.
On August 24 the Australian BOM had pretty much no idea that any unusual wetness was headed their way. Toss a coin, 50:50, yes or no. Spring 2010 was going to be “average”, except in SW Western Australia where they claimed “a wetter than normal spring is favoured.” What follows were 100 year floods, or at least above average rain to nearly every part of the nation bar the part that was supposed to be getting more rainfall.
[Snip]
How many billions have we lost thanks to farmers who might have been able to harvest early, or plant different crops, or avoid seeding in droughts, or any one of a thousand other choices that would help them to make the most of our highly variable climate.
There is a policy vacuum begging to be filled here. Will either side of politics in Australia spend a fraction of the carbon emissions reduction scheme to fly Piers Corbyn or Joe Bastardi out here and ask him to train up an Australian team to work on local conditions?
Hat tip to Val Majkus. Thanks!
—————————————————————————————————————————-
No need for Corbyn or Bastardi – Holtom is on to it right there in AU.
Reality vs CSIRO/BOM, Queensland Gov, South East Australian Climate Initiative, Flannery, Climate Institute/Karoly debacle at ‘Australia’ here:-
https://www.climateconversation.org.nz/open-threads/climate/regions/australia/comment-page-2/#comment-78042
de·ba·cle/diˈbakəl/
Noun:
A sudden and ignominious failure; a fiasco.
Capturing A Chinook
5:50AM Chinook Update
Posted on December 3, 2010 by stevengoddard
Houses on one side of Harmony Rd. are almost 30 degrees warmer than houses on the other side of the street.
Intense La Nina pattern delivers more rain than usual
# From: The Australian
# December 04, 2010
The most powerful incarnation of La Nina in more than three decades has produced one of Australia’s wettest years.
The World Meteorological Organisation yesterday released data that showed the global average temperature this year was 0.55C warmer than pre-1990 averages — making it the third-hottest in recorded history.
However, Australia bucked the trend because of weather events in the Pacific Ocean.
A powerful La Nina, characterised by a fall in surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and heavy rains, has been blamed for the flooding that has plagued the eastern states since August.
The rain has also been attributed to cool weather, with inland Australia one of the few places in the world to record below-average temperatures this year.
David Jones, the head of the Bureau of Meteorology’s climate analysis office, said the rains were expected to continue through to autumn, on the basis that La Nina events usually lasted for a year.
“Australia at the moment is tracking its third-wettest year on record and there’s still another month to go, so we won’t exactly know where it’s going to be until January,” Dr Jones said.
“We’ve got the largest La Nina since the 1970s at least, and that’s leading to heavy — in places, excessive — rainfall for north and eastern Australia.”
Not even the driest year ever seen in parts of Western Australia was enough to stop the WMO recording the nation’s wettest spring on record.
“The one place that has missed out, and I guess tells us a fair bit about what’s going on in the background, is southwest Western Australia,” Dr Jones said.
He added that La Nina did not usually have an impact on South Australia.
At the beginning of the year, a drought-causing El Nino was well established in the Pacific Ocean, but was rapidly replaced with La Nina.
The WMO said that from May until October, northern Australia experienced rainfall 152 per cent higher than average, while drought-breaking downpours hit the southeast.
NSW Natural Resources commissioner John Williams, a former CSIRO chief, said while cooler than usual weather was recorded in Australia’s centre, the national average was slightly higher than pre-1990 levels.
Dr Williams said he expected temperatures to climb to extreme levels in some parts of the country, while other regions would become cooler.
The heavy snow showers that hit Chicago Saturday have left the area, but portions of northwest Indiana could see an additional eight inches of lake effect snow before the system completely passes Sunday afternoon.
Dec 5 2010
The snowstorm dropped more than five inches on the Chicago area Saturday and canceled more than 325 flights.
Bitter cold temperatures are expected to replace the snow this week.
A winter storm advisory remains in effect until 6 a.m. Sunday for Lake County, Ind., according to the National Weather Service’s website. The advisory means periods of snow will cause travel difficulties and motorists should prepare for snow-covered roads and limited visibilities.
Lake effect snow along the Lake Michigan shore is expected to shift from the Illinois shore into Indiana, the weather service said. As much as five additional inches of snow is possible, but amounts may vary greatly over short distances.
Further east, a more serious lake effect snow warning will remain in effect until 9 a.m. for Porter County, Ind., the weather service said. As much as eight additional inches of snow are possible in this area, which includes Valparaiso, Ind.
Lake-effect snow showers typically align in bands that can produce several inches of snow per hour for several hours, the weather service said. Visibility can drop to zero in minutes and travel is strongly discouraged.
In Chicago, the heaviest snow has moved out of the area, but flurries remain possible until 9 a.m. Sunny skies are expected in the afternoon, but temperatures will only reach about 23 degrees.
The weather service reported more than five inches of snow fell at O’Hare Airport Saturday — breaking the old record for Dec. 4 snow set in 1964.
More than 325 flights were canceled at O’Hare Airport and “a few delays” were reported at Midway Airport, according to the city’s Department of Aviation.
Bitter cold temperatures are expected to move into the area the rest of the week, the weather service said. Highs are only expected to be in the low-20s early this week, and single digit lows are possible.
© Copyright 2009 Sun-Times Media, LLC
Look what we have here – conflicting weather forecasts
Crystal ball malfunctions in both cases methinks
Watch this space.
——————————————————————————————————————–
NZ faces long hot summer
Fri, 03 Dec 2010 2:37p.m.– TV3
New Zealand is in for a long, hot summer as La Nina hits our shores, says the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa).
Already, temperatures have soared across the country in late November, a pattern likely to continue until March, principal scientist James Renwick said today.
“In November, pretty much all of the country, the South Island and most of the North Island away from the coast, was quite a bit warmer than normal. Over summer, we’re expecting things to be on the warmer side in most places,” he told NZPA.
He said the current warm weather pattern — along with another La Nina heatwave in the late 80s — was the strongest in about 50 years.
People could expect temperatures to be several degrees Celsius above normal, taking some regions into the 30s “from time to time”.
While good news for holiday-makers, it was not so good for Northland or Waikato farmers already concerned about dry conditions, he said.
With little rain forecast before Christmas, Northland farmers facing their third consecutive summer drought this week said they would seek support from the Government.
El Nino and La Nina are different stages in a cyclical pattern of climate turbulence in the Pacific. While El Nino usually brings higher rainfall, La Nina brings cooler sea temperatures, high atmospheric pressure and drier air. Strong winds blow moisture away making for cloudless skies and dry conditions in equatorial countries from the International Date Line east to South America.
“The net result for New Zealand is we tend to get high pressures and more settled conditions,” Dr Renwick said.
Some scientists believe that the increased intensity and frequency — now every two to three years — of El Nino and La Nina events in recent decades is due to warmer ocean temperatures resulting from global warming.
[Warmer? – time to check the UNISYS Current Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Plot]
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
“You could say yes, in that temperatures have risen in New Zealand in the last century, so the chances of getting warm conditions have increased… because things are warming up,” Dr Renwick said.
The United Nations said today that 2010 is set to be among the top three warmest years since records began in 1850, and the past decade the warmest, in a new sign of man-made climate change.
Continues……….
——————————————————————————————————————–
The forecast: wettest summer in 21 years
5:30 AM Tuesday Dec 7, 2010 – NZ Herald
The North Island is in for the wettest summer in 21 years – ending the recent dry spell which broke numerous heat records./strong>
Weather Watch chief analyst Philip Duncan said the La Nina weather pattern which New Zealand was experiencing at the moment would bring heavy rain to the upper North Island.
“There has been all this talk about droughts, but really we have the wrong ingredients for a drought, although arguably we’ve had the right start to it.”
The La Nina weather pattern has been warming oceans in the Pacific and warm oceans guarantee rain, he said.
[Warming? – not according to the UNISYS Current Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Plot it ain’t]
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
“We’ve been experiencing all of the other symptoms of La Nina, except the rain which will be coming soon.”
If this summer follows the pattern of the La Nina of 1988-89, the upper North Island and Auckland could expect to see drizzly weather and “pretty heavy rain” by the end of January, he said.
“Put it this way, if we don’t have heavy rain by the end of January weather forecasters and scientists need to closely look at how we predict these events, because there’s obviously something wrong.”
This is good news for Northland farmers who are struggling with the extremely dry conditions.
It has been so dry that some farmers urged Agriculture Minister David Carter to declare a drought after minimal rain in the past two months set new records for low rainfall in many areas.
However, Mr Duncan said farmers would be happy with the weather predicted for summer.
“It looks like there will be an end to their drought early in the new year. But, I would recommend that they still prepare for a drought to be on the safe side,” he said.
Last month was unusually hot and dry for parts of Waikato, New Plymouth and Central Otago which experienced their hottest-ever November weather.
One weather station in Cromwell recorded 32.3C, an all-time record for November.
In the Waikato, a reading of 28.1C in Ruakura on November 28 was the highest in the region in 100 years of record-keeping.
What La Nina means for NZ
By Philip Duncan – NZH
10:30 AM Wednesday Dec 8, 2010
For many of us it’s hard to get our heads around what La Niña actually means for New Zealand and lately there have been many news stories at WeatherWatch.co.nz and across the media with several different predictions.
WeatherWatch.co.nz has taken the main points to explain why some news headlines have warned of “Looming La Niña droughts” while others say “Looming La Niña rains”.
Firstly it’s important to understand what La Niña is overall:
La Niña is when the cold pool of water in the eastern Pacific intensifies. This is mostly EAST of the International Dateline and around the equator – so well away from New Zealand.
During El Niño (the opposite of La Niña) the warm water spreads from the west Pacific and the Indian Ocean and into to the east Pacific. (So, the opposite of what we currently have now). It takes the rain with it, causing extensive drought in the western Pacific and brings rainfall to the normally dry eastern Pacific.
To help understand what is currently happening to the sea temperatures during this La Niña event look at this current map provided by Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology.
You can see the cooler than average waters east of the International Date Line and near the equator stretching towards South America (marked in blue).
But you can also see the warmer than average waters in our part of the world (pink and red). Stretching westwards from the International Date Line to the Coral Sea in north east Australia and into the Indian Ocean (west of Australia). It’s this pink and red area that creates more lows which in turn creates more rain. It also elevates the risks of tropical cyclones in the south west Pacific around New Caledonia for example.
What do warmer waters bring?
Well warm waters fuel rain making lows. This is why during El Niño (the opposite of what we have at the moment) we often get droughts right over New Zealand – because the fuel for rain bearing lows shifts away from us and towards South America.
With the current warmer than average waters north of us we’ve already seen major flooding in Queensland and New South Wales plus a tropical depression over Vanuatu around 10 days ago. New Zealand has missed out on rain due to persistent highs blocking these lows from reaching us.
So why the confusing headlines lately?
Well, quite simply, La Niña creates a number of different scenarios for New Zealand’s various regions. Forget about what La Niña does for other countries – let’s just focus on us…
A strong La Niña can bring to New Zealand:
* More rain, humidity and cloud to northern and eastern NZ.
* More north easterly winds
* Droughts to western and southern parts of the country
* More heat (Dry and scorching hot in the south and west, sticky, humid and muggy in the north)
This means we can have news stories about La Niña that have headlines like:
* La Niña brings cooler seas to Pacific (around the equator, well away from NZ)
* La Niña brings warmer seas to South West Pacific (Coral Sea, Vanuatu, Fiji etc)
* La Niña means more tropical cyclones in South West Pacific (eg, New Caledonia)
* La Niña brings hotter weather to NZ
* La Niña may bring droughts to parts of NZ (Central Otago, South Canterbury – which we’ve been seeing this past month)
* La Niña may bring heavy rain to parts of NZ (Northland, Coromandel Peninsula, Auckland, Bay of Plenty, East Cape)
So, you can see why it’s a little confusing for some!
——————————————————————————————————————–
Note that the BOM SSTA plot is now out of date.
Up to date SSTA anomaly here
There’s much more cold water around NZ than there was 30/11/2010 in the BOM plot
Philip Duncan may have to do an update – soon!
From the Renwick/TV3 forecast
“La Nina brings ………….. drier air”
97% humidity in Auckland today.
The Duncan/NZ Herald forecast is looking a better bet.
The rains are here.
Duncan/NZ Herald ……….2
Renwick/TV3………………….0
Georgina Griffiths (NIWA) desperately wants us all to know that NZ “is running HOT HOT” (heard on TV3) but makes a wet prediction contrary to Renwick’s dry – they can’t get their story straight in-house.
———————————————————————————————————————
NZ set for humid summer
5:30 AM Saturday Dec 25, 2010 – NZH
New Zealand is set for a humid summer, with experts predicting a warm and wet January and February.
Many parts of the country have already experienced warmer than usual weather for this time of year, and temperatures are going to continue to rise.
“We’ve been predicting average or above average temperatures for all of New Zealand. We’re certainly running about a degree and a half warmer than normal so far,” said National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research’s climate scientist Georgina Griffiths.
[Snip]
Although beachgoers will welcome the warmer weather, their spirits may be dampened by the amount of rain predicted for the summer months.
“That expectation of wet weather is in the North and East – Bay of Plenty, Gisborne, Auckland, Northland, Coromandel – they’re expecting normal to above normal rainfall for the whole season,” said Griffiths.
Cold Blast Strains Farmers
* DECEMBER 8, 2010 – WSJ
Early Frost Kills Crops in South, Drives Up Prices as Growers Try to Shield Produce
An unusually early blast of cold air is cloaking the southeast, forcing farmers to toil through the night to save their livestock and crops of strawberries, tender green beans and sweet corn.
In parts of Florida, hit Tuesday morning with a freeze not seen this early since 1937, some growers were already reporting severe frost burn and ruined plantings, reducing supply and driving up prices for winter vegetables amid the holiday season.
Florida growers endured a freeze and difficult spell of weather in January, “but now, the timing is more unfortunate because we are gearing up to put vegetables out for peoples’ holiday meals,” said Lisa Lochridge, spokeswoman for the Florida Fruit & Vegetable Association. The association was still determining total loss on Tuesday.
In Palm Beach County, the nation’s top producer of winter vegetables, the price of a bushel of green beans soared 62% Tuesday to between $24 and $26, compared to $14 to $16 over the weekend, said J.D. Poole, vice president of Pioneer Growers Cooperative in Belle Glade, Fla.
Frigid air from Canada pushed into the southeast Monday, bringing snow to mountains in Tennessee and West Virginia, cancelling schools in parts of North Carolina, and ushering in temperatures 15 to 20 degrees below normal in some places. The National Weather Service issued a freeze warning through Wednesday morning for most of Florida, the southeast corner of Alabama and southern Georgia.
While farming’s peak season is over in many regions of the country, it’s still in full swing throughout parts of the south—meaning farmers can get caught off guard by an early freeze. In Iron City, Ga., cattle farmer Yancy Trawick has erected a wall of hay in his field as a fort to protect his 75 newborn calves from the wind. “This is rough on them,” he said.
In Loxahatchee, Fla., workers at Hundley Farms were up all night into Tuesday, running warm water between crops of sweet corn and green beans to fend off frost. Starting at 3:40 a.m., six helicopters flew at varying levels back and forth over Hundley’s fields an in attempt to push the layer of warm air down on the crops, said Tom Perryman, crop supervisor.
Still, Tuesday morning revealed that about 30% of the crops were hurt by freeze, with delicate green beans the worse off, he said, adding, “And still have to get through tonight. I can’t remember a time when we had a freeze by Dec. 7,” he said.
Ms. Lochridge, of the Florida Fruit & Vegetable Association, said Florida’s growers of heartier citrus fruits have so far escaped any notable freeze damage, while some growers of strawberries, tomatoes, green beans, and sweet corn were reporting the tell-tale signs of frost burn.
In Belle Glade, fifth-generation farmer Stewart Stein said his sweet corn began “turning blackish green and slimy” right before his eyes Tuesday. As for his green beans, “the leaves will start drooping on the beans and wilting down,” he said.
He estimates he lost 150 acres of corn and 45 acres of green beans to frost. “It’ll take the wind out of your sails, that’s for sure,” he said.
“Gore effect” strikes Cancun Climate Conference 3 days in a row
Posted on December 8, 2010 by Anthony Watts
From the “weather is not climate department” – New record low temperatures set in Cancun for three straight days, and more new low temperature records are possible this week.
Dr. Roy Spencer, who is in Cancun representing climate skepticism on behalf of CFACT writes on his blog:
Today’s my first full day in Cancun at COP-16, and as I emerged from my hotel room I was greeted by a brisk, dry, cool Canadian breeze.
It was 54 deg. F in Cancun this morning — a record low for the date. (BTW, Cancun is nowhere near Canada).
Al Gore is not supposed to be here…but it could be that the Gore Effect has announced his secret arrival. We will check into this.
Here’s the record for today from Weather Underground:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/08/gore-effect-strikes-cancun-climate-conference-3-days-in-a-row/
“Gore Effect” on Steroids: Six straight days of record low temperatures during COP16 in Cancun Mexico – more coming
Posted on December 10, 2010 by Anthony Watts
The irony, it burns. Do you think maybe Gaia is trying to send the U.N. and the delegates a message? One record low was funny, three in a row was hilarious, a new record low for the month of December was ROFL, but now six straight days of record lows during the U.N. COP16 Global Warming conference? That’s galactically inconvenient. The whole month so far has averaged below normal:
Here’s today from Weather Underground, Today’s low was 55°F and the old record was 60°F in 1999:
Continues………….
the most important story today in my view is the one I put on News and I hope that Richard T will do a special article on it
http://www.climatedepot.com/a/9035/SPECIAL-REPORT-More-Than-1000-International-Scientists-Dissent-Over-ManMade-Global-Warming-Claims–Challenge-UN-IPCC–Gore
a couple of quotes
More than 1000 dissenting scientists (updates previous 700 scientist report) from around the globe have now challenged man-made global warming claims made by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and former Vice President Al Gore. This new 2010 320-page Climate Depot Special Report — updated from 2007’s groundbreaking U.S. Senate Report of over 400 scientists who voiced skepticism about the so-called global warming “consensus” — features the skeptical voices of over 1000 international scientists, including many current and former UN IPCC scientists, who have now turned against the UN IPCC. This updated 2010 report includes a dramatic increase of over 300 additional (and growing) scientists and climate researchers since the last update in March 2009. This report’s release coincides with the 2010 UN global warming summit being held in Cancun.
Background: Only 52 Scientists Participated in UN IPCC Summary
…
The notion of “hundreds” or “thousands” of UN scientists agreeing to a scientific statement does not hold up to scrutiny. (See report debunking “consensus” LINK) Recent research by Australian climate data analyst John McLean revealed that the IPCC’s peer-review process for the Summary for Policymakers leaves much to be desired. (LINK) (LINK) (LINK) & (LINK) (Note: The 52 scientists who participated in the 2007 IPCC Summary for Policymakers had to adhere to the wishes of the UN political leaders and delegates in a process described as more closely resembling a political party’s convention platform battle, not a scientific process – LINK)
Proponents of man-made global warming like to note how the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) and the American Meteorological Society (AMS) have issued statements endorsing the so-called “consensus” view that man is driving global warming. But both the NAS and AMS never allowed member scientists to directly vote on these climate statements. Essentially, only two dozen or so members on the governing boards of these institutions produced the “consensus” statements. This report gives a voice to the rank-and-file scientists who were shut out of the process. (LINK)
New Zealand has illustrious participants as does Australia and thanks to all those who stood up against the ‘status quo’ from those of us like me who are not scientists
This is huge Val – the quotes and links are amazing. I follow this guys work:-
—————————————————————————————————————————
Prominent Geologist Dr. Easterbrook Slams Geological Society of America’s climate statement ‘as easily refuted by data that clearly shows no correlation between CO2 and global climate change’ visit site
Claims are ‘not supported by any tangible data at all’ — To embrace a dogma with no attempt to recognize any data contrary to CO2 is a very unscientific approach’
—————————————————————————————————————————-
The more than 300 additional scientists added to this report since March 2009 (21 months ago), represents an average of nearly four skeptical scientists a week speaking out publicly. The well over 1000 dissenting scientists are almost 20 times the number of UN scientists (52) who authored the media-hyped IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers.
—————————————————————————————————————————-
Big news Richard T. All the names that the warmists are trying to swat dawn.
Another big story to emerge today:
It increasingly appears that the science is just a pretext and the stakes are much larger:
http://sppiblog.org/news/the-abdication-of-the-west
reported by Lord Monckton:
The abdication of the West
December 9th, 2010
The Viscount Monckton of Brenchley
From the SPPI Blog
Cancun, Mexico
I usually add some gentle humor to these reports. Not today. Read this and weep. Notwithstanding the carefully-orchestrated propaganda to the effect that nothing much will be decided at the UN climate conference here in Cancun, the decisions to be made here this week signal nothing less than the abdication of the West. The governing class in what was once proudly known as the Free World is silently, casually letting go of liberty, prosperity, and even democracy itself. No one in the mainstream media will tell you this, not so much because they do not see as because they do not bl**dy care.
The 33-page Note (FCCC/AWGLCA/2010/CRP.2) by the Chairman of the “Ad-Hoc Working Group on Long-Term Co-operative Action under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change”, entitled Possible elements of the outcome, reveals all. Or, rather, it reveals nothing, unless one understands what the complex, obscure jargon means. All UNFCCC documents at the Cancun conference, specifically including Possible elements of the outcome, are drafted with what is called “transparent impenetrability”. The intention is that the documents should not be understood, but that later we shall be told they were in the public domain all the time, so what are we complaining about?
The UN wants nothing less than 1.5% of our GDP.
That’s $212 billion from the USA every year ($2700 per family of 4).
That’s $32 billion from the UK every year ($2000 per family of 4).
That’s $13 billion from Australia every year ($2400 per family of 4).
Read in full the outcome being sought by the UN at the link above or at Jo Nova’s blog http://joannenova.com.au/
World Government!!!!!Communist style
and Richard T I hope the NZCSC will publicise this; I’ve sent a copy to the AustCSC
Val, good item but “Meteorology” is not the place for it.
It’s a “UN” or “News” category item.
Flooding disaster across east Australia
8:00 AM Friday Dec 10, 2010 – NZH
SYDNEY – Four deaths have been reported in severe flooding which has hit the eastern states of Australia this week.
The latest victim was in Queensland. Police have recovered the body of a 15-year-old boy who drowned at a flooded water hole on the Sunshine Coast.
Yesterday a man’s body was retrieved from a river at Nebo, west of Mackay. Witnesses said the impatient driver passed other cars stopped on the roadside waiting for the floodwaters to subside.
An 81-year-old man also died when his ute was swept off a flooded causeway and into a creek on Friday night.
And a 55-year-old woman died when her car was swept off a flooded roadway near Dysart, north-west of Rockhampton in central Queensland, last week.
Reports are calling NSW’s floods the worst inundation to hit the state in 50 years.
The swollen Queanbeyan River yesterday peaked in the NSW city neighbouring Canberra but residents forced to evacuate were not expected to be allowed home until late last night at the earliest.
If there is more rain they could be stranded for even longer.
The river cut Queanbeyan in half when it peaked at 8.4m in the afternoon. It had risen 3m in less than three hours.
The city has been declared a natural disaster area, taking the total number of declared areas across NSW to 30.
“The flood peak, we think, has already occurred on the river,” NSW Emergency Services Minister Steve Whan said in Queanbeyan.
“At 8.4m we’ve had the town cut in half. We’ve had around 100 houses and businesses which have been asked to evacuate.”
A number of houses and businesses were inundated and 10 people had to be rescued by boat from Trinculo Place, which runs alongside the Queanbeyan River just south of the King’s Highway.
An upstream river gauge indicates the river is now falling dramatically.
But NSW emergency services commissioner Murray Kear said it would take a further six hours “for the water to get down to any level where we could be confident to allow people back into their homes”.
Residents were given little warning of the flood because the river rose extraordinarily fast.
Water flowed from the nearby Googong Reservoir, which was already full before it received 103mm in the 22 hours to 9am yesterday.
The weather bureau is predicting the rain band that wreaked havoc in Queanbeyan will move north.
Authorities are worried it will pose problems for areas such as Coonamble in northwestern NSW.
The deluge that hit Queanbeyan and the nearby hills will also boost the volume of water flowing into the already swollen Murrumbidgee system. That will add, over the coming days, to the woes being experienced in Wagga Wagga and further downstream.
In Victoria, a man swept away by floodwaters north of Melbourne clung to a tree for five hours before he was rescued.
Police said the 51-year-old was walking home at about midnight in Whittlesea when he tried to wade across a waterway that had risen in a downpour and was swept 100m downstream. He managed to grab hold of a tree branch and hung on until about 5am, when he was found by people who heard his cries for help.
Water police rescued the man and he was taken to hospital, where he is expected to make a full recovery.
State Emergency Service workers took about 400 calls for help for flooding and building damage in Victoria’s northeast.
– AAP
Storm socks Midwest, cancels flights, closes roads
Dec 13 2010 – Associated Press
CHICAGO – A powerful winter storm roared across the upper Midwest on Sunday with high winds and mounds of snow closing roads in several states and canceling more than 1,400 flights in Chicago.
At least one weather-related death was reported Sunday as the storm system that dumped nearly 2 feet of snow in parts of Minnesota and caused the Metrodome’s inflatable, Teflon roof to collapse moved east. The Minnesota Vikings-New York Giants game was pushed to Monday night at Detroit’s Ford Field.
A blizzard warning was in effect Sunday for parts of eastern Iowa, southeastern Wisconsin, northwestern Illinois, and northern Michigan, according to the National Weather Service. Surrounding areas, including Chicago, were under winter storm warnings. “It’s going to be blustery,” said Ben Deubelbeiss, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Romeoville, Ill.
The winter weather, with blowing snow that severely limited visibility, wreaked havoc on air and road travel. In the Chicago area, wind gusts of up to 50 mph, temperatures in the teens, wind chills well below zero were expected along with up to 8 inches of snow.
More than 1,200 flights were canceled at O’Hare International Airport and more than 250 were canceled at Midway International Airport, Chicago Department of Aviation spokeswoman Karen Pride said. Both airports expected more cancellations and reported significant delays.
Major highways in several states were closed due to poor driving conditions and accidents.
Less snow but better snowmakers for skifields
1:13 PM Thursday Dec 16, 2010 – NZH
New Zealand will have less snow by the end of the century, but not as little as initially thought, and better snow-making machines will help skifields cope, according to new climate modelling by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa).
It was the first time a quantitative assessment of the potential impact of climate change on snow levels has been done in New Zealand.
Niwa scientists created three different emissions scenarios, which were used to calculate how the different levels of climate change could affect snow levels for the years 2030-2049 and 2080-2099.
They found:
* On average, at nearly all elevations, there will be a gradual decrease in snow as the century progresses.
* The decrease is more marked at elevations below 1000m.
Depending on skifield location and elevation, under a warmer climate change scenario, by 2090, on average, current maximum snow depths at the upper elevation sites will be further reduced, to approximately 79 per cent to 35 per cent.
The reductions were less marked for mid-range climate change scenario.
“Fortunately for New Zealand, we are unlikely to see the more extreme impacts predicted in Europe and Australia. Our modelling shows that the loss may actually be less than originally anticipated and we should be able to continue to make snow, even under a more extreme climate scenario, right out to the 2090s,” said Niwa snow and ice scientist Jordy Hendrikx.
Scientists could now give ski areas detailed, localised information they can use to better undertake long-term planning for the future changes to natural snow levels.
Ski Areas Association of New Zealand executive director Miles Davison was “quite optimistic” about the modelling results.
“Most New Zealand ski areas already have snowmaking systems installed and this new information will really help us to understand and plan for the future changes which may be needed at different areas, based on their location and elevation.”
– NZPA
——————————————————————————————————————–
Perhaps Mr Davison should check Dr Renwick’s (NIWA) summer 2010 forecast of drier air, cloudless skies and dry conditions before relying on NIWA’s forecast for 2040 and 2090.
I wonder if these “modelling results” are from NIWA’s new HPCF UKMO UM model that gets it so spectacularly wrong in Britain?
Note that NIWA used “emissions scenarios” to model snow levels!
Call a monkey Mr Davison – they provide better predictions than NIWA.
New Zealand snow areas confident they will adapt to any risks from climate change
NIWA News
New climate modelling shows seasonal snow levels at New Zealand ski areas will be reduced by the effects of climate change in the coming years, but the good news is the loss may actually be less than originally anticipated and we should be able to continue to make snow, even under a more extreme climate scenario.
This is the first time a quantitative assessment of the potential impact of climate change on snow levels has been done in New Zealand.
Using global climate trend data, taken from the climate models used for the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, NIWA scientists created three different emissions scenarios. These were then fed into a model specifically designed for New Zealand conditions, to show how the different scenarios could impact on snow levels for the 2040s (2030-2049) and the 2090s (2080-2099). Results were provided both for New Zealand as a whole and for individual ski areas.
The results show:
Nationally:
* On average, at nearly all elevation levels, there will be a gradual decrease in snow (including duration, and mean maximum snow accumulation) as the century progresses.
* The decrease in snow is more marked at elevations below 1000 metres but is evident at all but the highest elevations.
For individual ski areas (depending on their location and elevation):
* Under a mid-range climate change scenario, by 2040 there will be on average between 93% and 79% of the current maximum snow depths at the upper elevation sites, and by 2090 this, on average, will be further reduced, to approximately 80% to 54% of the current maximum snow depths.
* Under a warmer climate change scenario, by 2040 there will be on average between 92% and 72% of the current maximum snow depths at the upper elevation sites, and by 2090 this, on average, will be further reduced, to approximately 79% to 35% of the current maximum snow depths
* At lower elevations the decreases are even more pronounced.
* Under a mid-range climate change scenario, by 2040 there will be on average between 91% and 65% of the current maximum snow depths at the lower elevation sites, and by 2090 this, on average, will be further reduced, to approximately 68% to 20% of the current maximum snow depths.
* Under a warmer climate change scenario, by 2040 there will be on average between 83% and 45% of the current maximum snow depths at the lower elevation sites, and by 2090 this, on average, will be further reduced, to approximately 48% to 9% of the current maximum snow depths.
NIWA snow and ice scientist Dr Jordy Hendrikx says the new modelling confirms results from similar international studies.
“From these results we expect to see a gradual change in snow levels but fortunately for New Zealand, we are unlikely to see the more extreme impacts predicted in Europe and Australia. Our modelling shows that the loss may actually be less than originally anticipated and we should be able to continue to make snow, even under a more extreme climate scenario, right out to the 2090s. What’s really exciting about this work is that we can now give New Zealand ski areas detailed, localised information they can use to better undertake long term planning for the future changes to natural snow levels.”
Ski Areas Association of New Zealand executive director Miles Davison says the new modelling gives the industry useful information about how ski areas may need to be operated in the future.
“We are quite optimistic about these results. The sort of average percentage change predicted by 2040 under a mid-range scenario is actually much less than the current inter-annual variability in natural snow fall. We manage to deal with this annual variability now so we expect to comfortably deal with the average years of the 2040’s with snow making systems which have greater capacity, and from expected improvements in snow making technology which will provide for more efficient conversion of water to snow.”
“It’s obvious that if these predictions materialise we are going to need to make greater use of snowmaking technology in the coming years but we fully expect the necessary resources, the equipment and the ever improving technology that is used will ensure the forecast reductions in natural snowfall can be compensated for with snowmaking systems. That’s great news for the New Zealand skiing and snowboarding industry. Many other countries around the world are at far greater risk of their areas having to close, especially at lower elevations.”
“Most New Zealand ski areas already have snowmaking systems installed and this new information will really help us to understand and plan for the future changes which may be needed at different areas, based on their location and elevation.”
The modelling also looked at how many snowguns may be needed in the future to offset the loss in natural snow depth.
The new research is part of a project funded by the Ski Areas Association of New Zealand and the Foundation of Science, Research and Technology (FRST). Other projects, funded by FRST, are also looking at the impacts of climate change on water resources, flooding, glaciers and sea level rise.
——————————————————————————————————————–
The first results I’ve seen from NIWA’s HPCF – snow this time, and a snow/CO2 correlation apparently.
Next: water resources, glaciers and sea level rise.
The sea level rise study should be a doozy if the recent AU alarmism is anything to go by.
Alps could become snow-free by 2050
AUSTRALIA’S ski slopes could be completely bare of natural winter snow by 2050 unless concerted action is taken against global warming, according to a government-commissioned report that paints a grim picture of the effects of climate change on alpine areas.
The report, Caring for our Australian Alps Catchments, has found the Alps, which stretch from Victoria through New South Wales to the Australian Capital Territory, face an average temperature rise of between 0.6 and 2.9 degrees by 2050, depending on how much action the international community takes to combat climate change.
[…]
Rain, snow and other precipitation will decrease up to 24 per cent over the next four decades, accompanied by more bushfires, droughts, severe storms and rapid runoff, causing heavy erosion.
[…]
”The scenario that is most likely is that there will be less snow both in total and in area, and that we shift more to summer rainfall,” said study co-author Roger Good, a retired botanist with the NSW government.
”There won’t be snow that sits around and slowly melts as there has been in the past. There will be more storm events in summer and therefore faster run-off, which has a lot of potential impacts in terms of soil erosion and damage to vegetation. The worst-case scenario is that there will be no snow at all … only rainfall in both summer and winter.”
[…]
Ski fields should continue to get reasonable natural snow cover if the international community sticks to its ambition of keeping global carbon dioxide levels to 450 parts per million (ppm), up from the present 385 ppm, the report states.
But if less action is taken, leading to a concentration of 550 ppm, cover lasting more than 60 days could be reduced by up to 96 per cent by 2050.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/alps-could-become-snowfree-by-2050-20111009-1lfwu.html#ixzz1aS6dm8gw
Or they “could” be up to their necks in the stuff.
UK Freeze
Wind plot showing Arctic winds coming down across UK then on to Mediterranean.
Friday 17 Dec 2010
UK Freeze
Map showing the North/South divide
Saturday 18 Dec 2010
Summer snow falls at Perisher
20 Dec, 2010 10:30 AM – The Newcastle Herald
10 mm snow at Charlotte Pass Damaging winds predicted in Sydney, Hunter, Illawarra, Tablelands Christmas Day to be mostly sunny, 26 degrees
Snow is falling on the Snowy Mountains, Sydneysiders are bracing for damaging winds and much of the state’s east woke up to rain today.
It is hard to believe it’s summer in NSW, let alone Christmas.
Maverick Outwits Climate Science in Global Warming Predictions Game
by John O’Sullivan, guest post at Climate Realists
December 23rd 2010
As Britain’s top independent forecaster (a skeptic) again outwits his global warming adversaries in weather prediction, we examine what really separates the men from the boys in this hot topic.
Award Winning maverick forecaster, Piers Corbyn’s unparalled success in outperforming his rivals (global warming believers) is winning him deserved column inches in the British press.
The man who, in 2010 predicted a trio of major rare events (Pakistan floods, Moscow heatwave, Britain’s brutal winter) gives us a rare glimpse into why he’s so successful, to the great embarrassment of his main rivals, the Met Office.
continues………
NIWA Seasonal Climate Outlook: December 2010 – February 2011
Seasonal rainfall is likely to be below normal in the western South Island, normal or below normal in the north of the South Island, normal or above normal in the north and east of the North Island, and normal elsewhere. On average, La Niña summers tend to exhibit a gradient in rainfall in the north and east of the North Island, tending to be wetter in eastern Northland, coastal Bay of Plenty and Gisborne, and drier farther south and inland. Although rainfall is likely to be normal or above normal in the north and east of the North Island, summer soil moisture levels and river flows are likely to be normal or below normal in those regions, because of the already dry conditions. River flows and soil moisture levels are very likely to be below normal in the west and south of the South Island, and are likely to be near normal or below normal in all other regions, according to the National Climate Centre’s latest seasonal outlook.
“normal or below normal in the north of the South Island”
Clean up begins after storm inflicts worst flooding in 150 years
5:30 AM Thursday Dec 30, 2010
The clean-up has begun after Tuesday’s fast-moving storm brought heavy rain and strong winds to the South Island – and caused the worst flooding in 150 years in Golden Bay.
The extent of the damage to roads and infrastructure in Tasman and Marlborough is still not clear, but councils and civil defence staff in the regions met yesterday to organise the clean-up.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10697050
NIWA can’t buy a trick.
China, US wheat crops face ‘serious trouble’
April 1, 2011 – 5:36PM
Wheat crops in China, the world’s biggest consumer, and the US, the largest exporter, face “serious trouble” if La Nina weather patterns linger, extending damage to the nations’ harvests, British Weather Services said.
The two countries will be the last to emerge from the dry conditions linked to the weather event, which has also caused heavy flooding in Australia and Canada and drought in Argentina.
Dry weather will linger for the next two months, parching wheat crops that have already deteriorated in Texas and Oklahoma, and are preventing much-needed rains from reaching northern China, British Weather Services and forecaster Telvent DTN Inc. said.
Continues…..
http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/china-us-wheat-crops-face-serious-trouble-20110401-1crfq.html
Atmospheric Physics In 100 Words Or Less
Posted on April 19, 2011 by stevengoddard
The Sun heats the surface of the Earth. Warm air at the surface is less dense than the cold air above it, causing convection. The rising air expands and cools – while the sinking air compresses and heats. If the lapse rate is greater than the adiabatic lapse rate (10C per km) the air is unstable and storms can form. If the lapse rate is less than the adiabatic lapse rate, the air is stable and storms don’t form (i.e. inversion.)
When cold air overrides warm moist air (like in North Carolina over the weekend) the lapse rate gets very large and violent storms form.
Blaming global warming for tornadoes is freaking stupid (i.e. Time Magazine) because tornadoes usually require passage of a strong cold front.
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/04/19/atmospheric-physics-in-100-words-or-less/
Et tu, Bacteria? causing climate change
Germy with a chance of hail
Aerial microbes can trigger precipitation
By Janet Raloff
Web edition : Tuesday, May 24th, 2011
[Snip]
Alexander Michaud’s new research was triggered by a June storm that pummeled Montana State University’s campus in Bozeman last year with golf ball–sized and larger hailstones. The microbial ecologist normally studies subglacial aquatic environments in Antarctica. But after saving 27 of the hailstones, he says, “I suddenly realized, no one had really ever thought about studying hailstones — in a layered sense — for biology.”
So his team dissected the icy balls, along with hundreds of smaller ones collected during a July hail storm south of campus. Michaud now reports finding germs throughout, with the highest concentrations by far — some 1,000 cells per milliliter of meltwater — in the hailstones’ cores.
Since at least the 1980s, scientists have argued that some share of clouds, and their precipitation, likely traces to microbes. Their reasoning: Strong winds can loft germs many kilometers into the sky. And since the 1970s, agricultural scientists have recognized that certain compounds made by microbes serve as efficient water magnets around which ice crystals can form at relatively high temperatures (occasionally leading to frost devastation of crops).
Continues……..
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2011/05/et-tu-bacteria-causing-climate-change.html
WORLD FROM SPACE Heavy Snow In New Zealand
Widespread snow cover over New Zealand’s South Island as well as parts of the country’s North Island can be seen in these natural-colour images taken on Wednesday and Thursday, by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite.
Heavy snow fell in many parts of the North and South Islands of New Zealand on Monday and Tuesday, causing major disruption, closing schools, roads and airports.
Monday was the coldest day ever recorded in Auckland, New Zealand’s largest city. The last time snow settled on the ground in Auckland was in 1939. However, overall temperatures in New Zealand were colder and the quantity of snow was a lot worse in the 1930 event, according to weather historian Erick Brenstrom.
http://www.irishweatheronline.com/news/space/world-from-space/world-from-space-heavy-snow-in-new-zealand/32571.html
Ozone hole grows to near record size
THE Antarctic ozone hole, yawning open longer than usual, is topping out this year as one of the larger holes ever recorded.
[…]
”Year to year variability in the weather can effect the scale of the ozone hole significantly,”
[…]
The UN’s Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion report concluded that the Antarctic hole drove changes in surface winds over southern hemisphere mid and high latitudes, and was linked to warming of the Southern Ocean.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/ozone-hole-grows-to-near-record-size-20111010-1lhmd.html#ixzz1aS9IHsyx
UK Met Office Pours Cold Water On Severe Winter 2011-12 Forecasts by Mark Dunphy
The UK Met Office has distanced itself from recent media reports that the UK and Ireland are set for an ‘Arctic Winter’. The UKMO, which stopped issuing seasonal forecasts in 2010, also has said that recent long range forecasts by other agencies “bear no relation to the kinds of weather that forecasters at the Met Office are currently expecting”.
>>>>>>>>
http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=8490&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ClimaterealistsNewsBlog+%28ClimateRealists+News+Blog%29
Time will tell.
More NIWA BS.
The SST anomaly (at this date) shows that you have to go waaay northeast to find the warmer anomaly in amongst the surrounding cooler water.
Same plot shows “near average” temperature about the NZ region is -1.8 C cooler than normal.
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif
Spin it up NIWA.
Just heard these words on TV3 news – “NIWA has admitted it got the summer forecast wrong”.
January 2012 update: http://www.niwa.co.nz/new-zealand-climate-update-151-january-2012
“Seasonal Climate Outlook: December 2011 – February 2012” http://www.niwa.co.nz/current-climate-november-2011
“In this example the climate models suggest that below average conditions are likely (50% chance of occurrence)”
“…the chance of normal or above normal is also shown (30% and 20% respectively)”
Niwa concedes summer outlook off the mark
Niwa has conceded last month’s record-breaking rain and flooding was a far cry from the average rainfall predicted in its summer weather outlook.
The outlook for November to January was for near-normal rainfall across the country, with temperatures near average in the North Island and above average in the South Island.
Instead, wet weather lashed the country and a state of emergency was declared in Nelson last month following record-breaking rainfalls that closed roads, caused flooding and slips and forced households to evacuate.
Niwa principal climate scientist James Renwick today said the pre-summer outlook did not turn out quite as expected, but…….
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10778465
Are the New Zealand NIWA Outlooks as useless as those of the Australian BoM ?
January 8th, 2012 by Warwick Hughes
Readers have pointed out to me the huge rain totals for various parts of Aotearoa for December 2011. So I checked the NIWA 3 month Outlook for December-February issued on 1st Dec 2011.
[See images]
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=1246
See the top image titled:-
“Seasonal Climate Outlook: December 2011 – February 2012″
In the notes at the bottom of the image are the immortal words:-
“In this example the climate models suggest that below average conditions are likely (50% chance of occurrence)”
“…the chance of normal or above normal is also shown (30% and 20% respectively)”
This will be interesting……
Does mild weather herald first signs of spring?
By Fiona Murray BBC News 9 January 2012
With some temperatures for January getting into double figures and as we throw off our hats, scarves and gloves on many of those days – we could be forgiven for thinking spring has sprung.
But we are still officially in winter. Spring does not start until March.
[…]
So with climate change can we expect to see more of the mild temperatures?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-16469487
Probably not this year……
Accelerating Global Warming Getting Ready To Shock-Freeze Europe!
By P Gosselin on 29. January 2012
[See plot]
Forecast temperature anomaly for January 27 – February 4 (This chart will be turning purple in the days ahead)
Reader DirkH brings our attention to a weather warning for the next two weeks from wetter.t-online.de, which warns that temperatures in parts of Germany may plunge to 25°C below zero.
http://notrickszone.com/2012/01/29/accelerating-global-warming-geeting-ready-to-shock-freeze-europe/
Sure enough, we can add Glenshesk daffodils in County Antrim Northern Ireland to the list of untrustworthy weather forecasters (UK Met, NIWA, CSIRO, BOM).
Glenshesk River
Current Weather: Temperature 0C
Tomorrow: High 1C, Low -2C
http://www.virtualtenby.co.uk/weather-forecast.asp?weather=Glenshesk%20River
Europe’s deadly cold snap maintains grip
# Dozens of people are reported to have been killed by exposure to the cold or in weather-related accidents.
# Temperatures in Poland have fallen to as low as -33C (-27F) in the past few days.
# Another 12 people froze to death across Poland on Thursday night, according to police, bringing the total killed there during this cold snap to 30.
# The snow and ice has meant widespread delays and cancellations to European flights in recent days, with the closure of a number of British airports.
# Temperatures are an average 5C-10C below average in some major cities.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11907045
Snowdrops, bees and flies.in Northern Ireland too apparently.
And don’t trust butterfly species throughout the British Isles for weather tips either.
Earth Simulator Supercomputer Used to Forecast 2012 Climate Patterns
January 31, 2012
TOKYO, Jan. 31 –Professor Toshio Yamagata, Dean of University of Tokyo Graduate School of Science and Head of the Application Laboratory of Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), has announced seasonal climate predictions for 2012 which are strongly influenced by only recently understood climate variations in the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
[…]
Prof. Yamagata used the JAMSTEC giant Earth Simulator supercomputer – one of the largest and fastest computers on the planet – to develop his new model of climate change, one that combines meteorology and oceanography. Supported by his own version of a complex atmosphere-and-ocean-based model (the SINTEX-F1 coupled general circulation model), he discovered and confirmed the new phenomenon in the Indian Ocean that is similar to the El Nino and La Nina phenomena in the Pacific Ocean. Because the newly discovered phenomenon oscillates between “positive” and “negative” sea surface temperature patterns, he named it “Indian Ocean Dipole”. By using the Earth Simulator to run his new model of climate variations, the group, led by Prof. Yamagata, succeeded in making the world’s first prediction of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event in 2006.
Based on this research, Professor Yamagata predicted the massive flooding in Thailand last year. “In 2011, we observed both the IOD in the Indian Ocean and La Nina in the Pacific Ocean. When we see the IOD pattern, we can expect heavy rain over Indo-China. And La Nina also brings heavy rain in this region, so it was likely that the region would receive a double punch of torrential rain. Actually, our model predicted that,” according to the professor.
[…]
The IOD phenomenon is quite similar to El Nino, which occurs in the tropical region of the Pacific Ocean. In the IOD, the surface temperature of the ocean begins to drop in the eastern Indian Ocean (off the coast of Java), while it rises from the central to the western Indian Ocean (extending to the coast of Kenya). In response to these oceanic temperature changes, the easterly wind at the equator becomes stronger. This IOD phenomenon usually develops in May or June, reaches a peak in October, and fades away in December.
It is now clear that this phenomenon can lead to droughts in Indonesia or Australia while producing massive flooding in parts of east Africa such as Kenya. In addition, it has a significant impact on summer monsoons, leading to heavy rain from northern India to the Indochinese peninsula and southern China, and also produces exceptionally hot weather in eastern Asia and western Japan, including the area around Okinawa. It has also been reported that this phenomenon is closely linked to severe hot weather patterns in the European Mediterranean.
>>>>>>>>>>
http://www.hpcwire.com/hpcwire/2012-01-31/earth_simulator_supercomputer_used_to_forecast_2012_climate_patterns.html
“new model of climate change, one that combines meteorology and oceanography. Supported by his own version of a complex atmosphere-and-ocean-based model” – interesting.
Sea Surface Temperature in Indian Ocean Acts as Predictor for
Following Year’s El Niño
– Influence of Indian Ocean Dipole on El Niño First Revealed –
Japan Agency for Marine-earth Science and Technology
Graduate School of Science, the University of Tokyo
February 22, 2010 Press Release
Overview
El Niño and La Niña events in the tropical Pacific Ocean induce anomalous weather patterns around the world, with significant socio-economic impacts. The occurrence of El Niño/La Niña now may have become more predictable, thanks to the study conducted by a team of scientists from the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology(JAMSTEC), Graduate School of Science of the University of Tokyo, and the French Research Institute for Exploration of the Sea(IFREMER).The team confirmed that the El Niño/La Niña occurrence is strongly influenced by the negative/positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole(*1), the Indian Ocean equivalent of ENSO, and its occurrence is predictable with great precision beyond a year ahead, by use of sea surface temperature (SST) data in the Indian Ocean.
Combined with an IOD forecast model, the finding will serve to increase the predictability of climate fluctuations responsible for abnormal weather patterns, as early as around 20 months prior to their occurrences. This will allow people to better prepare against extreme weather conditions and help reduce impacts of possible disasters.
Their work will be published in the online issue of science journal Nature Geoscience on February 22. [2012]
Title: Influence of the state of the Indian Ocean Dipole on following year’s El Niño
Authors: Takeshi Izumo, Jerome Vialard, Matthieu Lengaigne, Clement de Boyer Montegut, Swadhin K. Behera, Jing-Jia Luo, Sophie Cravatte, Sebastien Masson and Toshio Yamagata
>>>>>>>>>>
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/e/about/press_release/20100222/
JAMSTEC > Application Laboratory > Research Development
# Daily weather forecast and seasonal variation forecast
-Necessity and impact of the short-term climate variability-
# The Indian Ocean Dipole Phenomenon (IOD) and El Nino Modoki:
Recently Discovered Climate Modes which may be linked with Global Warming
# The Unique Influence of El Nino and IOD on the Global Climate
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/apl/e/research/
No news in the JAMSTEC Application Laboratory forecast (see link previous comment) of a big ol’ El Nino on the way. They’re only out to 5-6 months so far and all they have predicted is:-
1) El Nino Forecast: A La Nina condition will continue in the [NH] winter and spring, and begin to dissipate in the [NH] summer.
No doubt the proprietor of Hot Topic would take the leap that: well, a big ol’ El Nino will be upon us in the SH spring 2012 and global warming will be back on track.
Oops, the paper was published in 2010:-
‘Influence of the state of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the following year’s El Niño’
Izumo et al 2010
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00002/11304/7833.pdf
Supplementary Information
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00002/11304/7832.pdf
Makes a good companion for:-
‘Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature’
J. D. McLean, C. R. de Freitas and R. M. Carter 2009
http://www.auscsc.org.au/images/PDF/influenceofenso.pdf
I note that Bryan Leyland’s prediction of “continued cool conditions until Aug 2012 at least” is consistent with the JAMSTEC AL prediction of “A La Nina condition will continue in the [NH] winter and spring, and begin to dissipate in the [NH] summer”
http://web.me.com/bryanleyland/Site_3/Global_Cooling.html
Hard to see where the warm water will come from for an EL Nino of any significance given there’s no large warm pool north of Australia at present:-
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif
I’m sure I recall that there was a large warm pool north of Australia prior to the last 09/10 El Nino.
Discussion and comparison of recent conditions with historic La Niña events
Klaus Wolter
Stay tuned for the next update (by March 10th, or earlier – ICOADS appears to be less threatened for now [funding issues]) to see where the MEI will be heading next. La Niña has staged a comeback similar to 2008-09, and consistent with expectations formulated right here well over a year ago: big La Niña events have a strong tendency to re-emerge after ‘taking time off’ during northern hemispheric summer. Based on current atmosphere-ocean conditions, I believe the odds for this La Niña event to continue right through early summer (June-July 2012) are just about 50%. Beyond that, it is worth noting that four of the ten two-year La Niña events between 1900 and 2009 ended up as a three-year event, so I would put the odds for this to occur in 2012-13 at 40% right now. The remaining six cases all switched to El Niño, leaving not a single ENSO-neutral case. The year 2012 promises to remain “interesting”. If and when something new transpires on the fate of ICOADS and the MEI, I will communicate it right on this webpage.
[Also,]
Overall, the reputation of the SOI as being a ‘noisy’ ENSO index remains well deserved.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/#discussion
40% chance that La Niña will continue beyond June-July 2012 (triple-dip).
Hansen and Renowden (and Hansen/Renowden) must be sweating.
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
9 February 2012
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
Synopsis: La Niña is likely to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during March-May 2012.
A majority of models predict La Niña to weaken through the rest of the Northern Hemisphere winter 2011-12, and then to dissipate during the spring 2012 (Fig. 6).
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf
The Southern Oscillation Index, or SOI, gives an indication of the development and intensity of El Niño or La Niña events in the Pacific Ocean. The SOI is calculated using the pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin.
Sustained negative values of the SOI greater than −8 often indicate El Niño episodes. These negative values are usually accompanied by sustained warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, a decrease in the strength of the Pacific Trade Winds, and a reduction in winter and spring rainfall over much of eastern Australia and the Top End. You can read more about historical El Niño events and their effect on Australia in the Detailed analysis of past El Niño events.
Sustainted positive values of the SOI greater than +8 are typical of a La Niña episode. They are associated with stronger Pacific trade winds and warmer sea temperatures to the north of Australia. Waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become cooler during this time. Together these give an increased probability that eastern and northern Australia will be wetter than normal. You can read more about historical La Niña events and their effect on Australia in the Detailed analysis of past La Niña events.
The ENSO Wrap-Up includes the latest 30-day SOI value, as well as other information on indicators of El Niño and La Niña events.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/soi.shtml
ENSO Wrap-Up
La Niña continues with little change
Issued on Wednesday 1 February
La Niña conditions showed only small changes over the past fortnight and are expected to maintain an influence upon Australian climate over the coming months.
Over the past fortnight, sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific cooled slightly, reversing the recent warming trend. However other indicators of La Niña, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds, and cloudiness over the equatorial Pacific Ocean have generally remained steady, below their December peak but clearly exceeding La Niña thresholds.
Climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate a gradual decline in the strength of the La Niña over the coming months, with most models suggesting a return to neutral conditions during the southern autumn.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Parodies that come to mind:-
‘Desperately Seeking Nino’
‘Finding Nino’
‘Waiting for Nino’
Fig. 6 Model ENSO Predictions from Jan 2012:-
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/figure6.gif
SST indices remained near -1.C in the Niño-3.4 and Niño-4 regions Jan 2012.
The UKMO model (think NIWA) was already at -0.5 C Jan but there’s basically 3 predictions on track in the graph:
1) Dynamic average (climate models);
2) Statistical average; and,
3) CPC/IRI consensus forecast
DYN AVE and STAT AVE are at about 0 C by Nov 2012 but CPC CON is at -0.25 C.
Fig 5 was referenced and linked from this page:-
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html
From there, there’s a link to: CPC/IRI consensus forecast:-
http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/figure1.html
Official Early-Feb CPC/IRI Consensus Probabilistic ENSO Forecst
–Made in Feb 2012–
Season SON 2012 (Sept-Oct-Nov)
31% La Niña
37% Neutral
32% El Niño
Bets anyone?
Norwegeian Climate Scientist Tore Furevik Says Cooling “La Niña Will Not Be Going Away”
It wasn’t all that long ago when a number of climate scientists were projecting the Earth would soon fall into an almost permanent, increasing El Niño mode, where the surface temperatures of the equatorial Pacific would always be like what we saw in 1998 – all man-made.
Today a number of German-language papers are reporting that Norwegian scientist Tore Furevik of the Bjerknes Centre of the University of Bergen says he expects the opposite to happen at least this year. Furevik says that La Niña may come back for third straight year. “The situation is simlar to the previous year,” he says.
Die Welt here writes that “there are no signs that La Nina is going to disappear anytime soon” and that according to Norwegian experts “it will occur even more strongly than in 2011″
[…]
Furevik’s La Niña forecast contradicts the experts’ forecast, where an ensemble of models show the trend towards an El Niño for the 2nd half of the year:
>>>>>>>>>>>
http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=9219&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ClimaterealistsNewsBlog+%28ClimateRealists+News+Blog%29
The essence of Gareth Renowden’s nightmares – and the cause of James Hansen’s heart palpitations.
Check this out from Paul Vaughn at JN
Zonal Wind Vertical Profile, 12 months, Jan – Dec: http://i51.tinypic.com/34xouhx.png (let it load)
According to Paul:-
“At cross-ENSO Schwabe-timescale, the solar cycle spatiotemporally modulates zonal westerly winds — i.e. it cyclically ( http://i46.tinypic.com/2yw7711.png ) drives variations in this pattern:”
Whew.
http://joannenova.com.au/2012/06/has-north-victoria-cooled-not-warmed-and-is-that-a-solar-cycle-signal-we-see/#comments
British supercomputer botches weather forecasts
Written by Jonathan DuHamel, Tucson Citizen | June 27 2012
The British Meteorological Office has a new weather-forecasting super-computer built at a cost of 41 million pounds sterling (approximately $65 million) . The computer is touted to be more powerful than 100,000 standard PCs, is capable of 1,000 billion calculations every second, and uses 1.2 megawatts of energy to run – enough to power a small town. The head of the Met office claims that this new computer “will enable the Met Office to deliver more accurate forecasts, from hours to a century ahead.”
Let’s see how it is doing so far. On 23 March 2012, the computer produced a forecast for the next three months: “The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favors drier-than-average conditions for April-May-June as a whole, and also slightly favors April being the driest of the 3 months. With this forecast, the water resources situation in southern, eastern and central England is likely to deteriorate further during the April-May-June period.”
And here is what happened:
April: 2012 had wettest April for 100 years, Met Office says “It has been the wettest April in the UK for over 100 years, with some areas seeing three times their usual average, figures from the Met Office show. Some 121.8mm of rain has fallen, beating the previous record of 120.3mm which was set in 2000.”
June: June on course to be wettest in a century: Flooding, storms and persistent showers have blighted the country in recent weeks putting this June in line to become one of the soggiest in 100 years.
25 June: Spring is wettest in Britain for 250 years – England and Wales are on course for the wettest late spring and early summer for 250 years, experts said yesterday. June has just seen its fourth washout weekend and yet more downpours are forecast. Now it is feared combined rainfall for April, May and June will break the record of 13.2in (336mm) set in 1782 and be the highest since records began in 1766.
>>>>>>>
http://climatechangedispatch.com/home/10298-british-supercomputer-botches-weather-forecasts
I had the pleasure of experiencing the “wettest ever drought” first hand in the UK
There were still hosepipe bans in place whilst the paddocks were waterlogged.
Of course, the real failure was the lack of investment in infrastructure, but why waste a good “climate change” story?
Yet Another Met Office Fail
October 7, 2012. By Paul Homewood
“With this level of competence, do they seriously expect us to believe their predictions for the end of the century?”
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2012/10/07/yet-another-met-office-fail-2/
Ha! Media willing up a “scorching” El Nino, and a farmers pragmatic response:-
This El Nino has as much and possibly greater probability to be short-lived, weak and back to neutral around early new year as it has to be long-lived, strong and regime changing..
Snow blankets the greater Sydney region
12 October, 2012
Snow has fallen across a large part of NSW and the ACT, closing roads and disrupting public transport.
Goulburn residents woke to snow this morning, as did people in Katoomba, Mt Blackheath, Mt Victoria and Mittagong. There have been reports of snow in the Blue Mountains and Southern Highlands, while Canberra has received 10 centimetres.
Two major roads have been closed by the snow – The Great Western Highway in both directions at Wentworth Falls, and Bell’s Line of Road at mt Tomah. Sydney Ferries has cancelled the Manly service due to the weather, and trains and buses have also been affected.
Yesterday, South Australia witnessed a once-in-a-century October snowfall.
The Bureau of Meteorology says the snow is a result of a very cold air mass that has moved across NSW. The air mass has caused a deep low to form on the south coast which has produced the snow.
>>>>>>>>
http://www.abc.net.au/local/stories/2012/10/12/3609277.htm
A very cold air mass as the result of a hurricane at the bottom of the Indian Ocean last week methinks.
From the “weather is not climate” department, we have snow at The Lecht today (a small Scottish ski area near Aberdeen) – only October!
and Livigno, Italy is looking somewhat white.
Meanwhile, in South Canterbury NZ, we got a good 30cm of fresh on Saturday. The snowline was down to about 700m above sea level
but from Sky news:
Grim Climate Change Prediction For Oz Skiers
Global warming may make snowfall at Australia’s ski resorts a thing of the past, leaving fans of the white stuff worried
http://news.sky.com/story/997134/grim-climate-change-prediction-for-oz-skiers
and without a hint of irony, in “related news” at the bottom of this piece
“Freak snowfalls in areas near Sydney”
NIWA are predicting an “early start to summer” according to TVNZ:-
http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/early-start-summer-predicted-5180713
Quoting:-
“The atmosphere is yet to show any response to warmer than normal sea surface temperatures”
What warmer than normal SSTs? The anomaly is -1.55 C all around NZ and I cannot believe the cold air coming off the sea at MtM at the moment even though there’s sunny skies:-
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif
The TVNZ article goes on:-
“Last year, NIWA forecast there would be a an early start to summer with a La Nina weather pattern, however most of the country was drenched with rain in early December.
In March this year NIWA confirmed New Zealand had been short changed on summer , with records showing cloudiness, cool temperatures and above average rainfall plagued the period between December and February.
Do you believe NIWA’s predictions? Have a say on our Facebook page . ”
# # #
I don’t believe NIWA’s current prognosis let alone predictions.
‘Anatomy of dissent’
by Judith Curry
Two particular subgroups of ACC-questioning mainstream scientists that emerged from my research among atmospheric scientists were two kinds of research meteorologists: the (by definition physics-strong and theoretical) dynamicists and more empirical research meteorologists with past training in synoptic methods and weather prediction. – Myanna Lahsen
An interesting paper was sent to me by Douglas Sheil, which provides some insights into skepticism in the meteorological research community.
Anatomy of Dissent: A Cultural Analysis of Climate Skepticism
Myanna Lahsen
>>>>>>
http://judithcurry.com/2013/06/19/anatomy-of-dissent/#more-11843
Cricket Ground Weather (and horse racing etc), Detailed Forecast Charts
Grass and sub soil temperature, precipitation, cloud, wind and evapotranspiration
http://www.myweather2.com/Cricket/New-Zealand.aspx
Temperature: Forecast Thursday 20th June to Tuesday 25th June
The charts below show detailed temperature information with values at 20 minute intervals. This data is of particular interest to the sport of horse racing. The green line with dashes indicates the expected un-shaded grass surface temperature. The blue line indicates the expected air temperature in a shaded well ventilated spot. The purple line indicates the expected temperature of the race track sub soil at a depth of 10cm. The red line indicates the expected dew point temperature in a shaded and well ventilated spot. Where the blue air temperature line on the chart meets or crosses the dew temperature line you can expect to see an increasing chance and amount of dew forming on the track.
Carisbrook, Dunedin
http://www.myweather2.com/activity/xsection-frame.aspx?type=temp&xid=499&tu=c&wsu=kmph&pu=mm&locid=17384
Eden Park, Auckland
http://www.myweather2.com/activity/xsection-frame.aspx?type=temp&xid=501&tu=c&wsu=kmph&pu=mm&locid=17385
10 °C soil is about the threshold when plant growth activity shuts down. Eden Park’s sub soil forecast is mostly above that, Carisbrook is down around 0 – 2 °C.
Canterbury Racecourse, Melbourne Australia.
Sub soil temperature half way between Eden Park and Carisbrook at 5 °C:
http://www.myweather2.com/activity/xsection-frame.aspx?type=temp&xid=403&tu=c&wsu=kmph&pu=mm&locid=41295
‘Most watched’ El Nino update:
‘Doubts Surface Over 2014 El Nino’
“Furthermore, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) – a measure of the atmospheric pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin in Australia and a lead indicator of El Nino conditions – has risen over the past two weeks and has generally remained around +8 to +10. The latest approximate 30-day SOI value to 15 June is +10.3. Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Nina Pacific Ocean cooling event rather than a warming event.”
http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/doubts-surface-over-2014-el-nino-development-as-warming-stalls.html
Mixed Signals Continue Over 2014 El Nino Development
23.06.2014
Latest data shows Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies weakening, the key 30-day SOI metric remaining positive while computer model forecasts continue to predict only modest warming into the future with no certainty that the El Nino threshold will be exceeded.
http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/mixed-signals-continue-over-2014-el-nino-development.html
‘Peru says El Nino threat over, waters cooling and fish returning’
Reuters, July 4, 2014 7:23 PM
LIMA (Reuters) – The worst of the potentially disastrous weather pattern El Nino is now behind Peru and cooling sea temperatures are luring back schools of anchovy, the key ingredient in fishmeal, authorities said on Friday.
Temperatures in Peru’s Pacific peaked in June, rising 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 Fahrenheit) above average levels, but have since retreated and will likely return to normal by August, the state committee that studies El Nino said.
“The possibility of us seeing an extraordinary Nino is ruled out,” said German Vasquez, the head of the committee.
Peru is the world’s top fishmeal exporter, producing about a third of worldwide supply. The industry is concentrated along the South American country’s northern and central coast.
Cold-water anchovy that swam south to escape warmer sea temperatures that arrived in April are making their way back now, Vasquez said.
“Anchovy are coming north,” Vasquez said. “There are already fish in the center of the country, but they’re still very close to the coast and not yet at their usual depth.”
More>>>>>
http://news.yahoo.com/peru-says-el-nino-threat-over-waters-cooling-232314417.html
‘El Nino forecasts flop as puzzled scientists hunt for answers’
Brian K. Sullivan, February 6, 2015
When it comes to El Nino, 2014-15 may be the years that launched a thousand academic papers.
Since last March, forecasters have said an El Nino was on the way. The only trouble is, it hasn’t arrived. Call it the period of the phantom El Nino, a shimmering siren of weather patterns yet to come that has been seen fluttering in the sparkling waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
While every El Nino sparks research, this one — or the lack thereof — is certain to prompt even more. Part of the reason is that while some global weather patterns reacted as though an El Nino was taking place, the main characteristics of the phenomenon never materialized. If there’s anything scientists hate, it’s not understanding why something happened.
“One thing that stands out on this ENSO is how wrong the models were in predicting a major event in 2014,” said Matt Rogers, president of Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/el-nino-forecasts-flop-as-puzzled-scientists-hunt-for-answers-20150205-137hoj.html
NIWA’s 50/50 forecast was bang on.
New Zealand Climate Summary: 2015
Page 8:
“The nation-wide average temperature for 2015 was 12.7°C (0.1°C above the 1981–2010 annual average), using NIWA’s seven-station temperature series which begins in 1909. 2015 was the 27th-warmest year since 1909, based on this seven-station series.”
http://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/1601/2015_Annual_Climate_Summary_Final.pdf
# # #
“27th-warmest year since 1909” didn’t make headlines. All they got was:
‘El Nino prompts lower rainfall across New Zealand’
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/el-nino-prompts-lower-rainfall-across-new-zealand
“27th-warmest year since 1909” is relegated to the last sentence. NIWA don’t update their downloadable 7SS data but here’s the additions:
2010 13.10
2011 12.80
2012 12.50
2013 13.40
2014 12.80
2015 12.70
‘A Warming Arctic Would Not Cause Increased Severe Weather or Temperature Extremes’
by Chuck Wiese, Meteorologist, Weatherwise, Inc.
This paper is a critique Francis and Vavrus (2012), hereinafter FV (2012), by atmospheric scientists Jennifer Francis from Rutgers University and Steve Vavrus of the University of Wisconsin.
[…]
CONCLUSIONS
FV (2012) cited in the introduction of this article is fatally flawed, incorrect and should be withdrawn by the authors. As shown here, there is no theoretical basis in which to ground FV (2012). Using the proper Rossby wave physics as illustrated here, these atmospheric waves (or commonly called planetary atmospheric waves that generate low and high pressure systems that create our weather, severe and otherwise) behave in the opposite fashion as claimed in FV (2012).
A warming Arctic that is supposed to be weakening the westerly wind belt across the northern hemisphere would create an entirely different effect on the earth’s weather as FV (2012) claims. If FV (2012) claims were true, the physics governing these waves would require them to flatten in amplitude and migrate to a higher latitude, causing a much weakened effect on the Northern Hemisphere’s weather patterns.
If FV (2012) claims were true, precipitation systems would weaken and migrate northward with the migrating jet stream. Storms, severe and otherwise would become far less common than today and would be replaced with problematic drought and much higher surface absolute and relative humidities. This increased low level moisture would lead to sporadic showers and thunderstorms in an ever expanding maritime tropical airmass environment, but not enough precipitation to forestall severe droughts.
By severe droughts, I don’t mean regional droughts such as those experienced recently in California. But rather, droughts that would expand into a worldwide regime. Present-day droughts are nothing more than cyclical changes in the earth’s climate system that have very definitive and repetitive cycles.
What is particularly disturbing about FV (2012) is not only is it incorrect and flawed, but it passed peer review. Now, after publication, FV (2012) has been lapped up by media, touted and referenced in their severe weather stories that report on hurricanes, tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, heat, cold, drought and any other weather calamity as “proof” their paper is correct. Nothing could be further from the truth.
The reader needs to understand that anytime we experience severe weather, it is proof that adequate COLD in the high latitudes and Arctic has been generated by the normal radiational cooling process by the earth that creates the adequate potential energy across the latitude lines to cause amplification of the jet stream waves and speeds that pushes this colder air southward to warmer latitudes that then creates the necessary temperature gradients to liberate that energy, creating storms as well as high pressure systems.
If the occurrence of severe weather is increasing worldwide, it is not a sign of a warming earth. It is the opposite of what climate hysteria claims, and an indication of a cooling, not warming earth.
The continued misuse, abuse and general trashing of important principles founded with atmospheric science remains as deplorable as ever by the groups promoting global warming from human CO2 emissions or by these same groups promoting climate hysteria by re-labeling this term “climate change”.
Now that the flawed FV (2012) passed peer review, it allows media to blame any severe weather on “climate change.” FV (2012) allows media to claim a wavier jet stream dips and meanders because the Arctic is supposedly getting warmer. All this is sheer nonsense and all demonstrably wrong.
I believe this flawed FV (2012) also shows how the quality of the scientific peer review process has been lowered in “climate science”.
http://edberry.com/blog/climate-physics/meteorology/a-warming-arctic-would-not-cause-increased-severe-weather-or-temperature-extremes/
“FV (2012) … is fatally flawed, incorrect and should be withdrawn by the authors. As shown here, there is no theoretical basis … to … FV (2012). Using the proper Rossby wave physics as illustrated here, these atmospheric waves … behave in the opposite fashion as claimed in FV (2012).”
Sounds like this has been in the textbooks for decades. Why only now does a scientist who knows the physics explain it to us, or why has it taken us so long to notice it?
Still, this is deadly to the panic stirred up by the warmies, like so much else that is now surfacing. Well done, Richard.
RT >”Why only now does a scientist who knows the physics explain it to us”
It took a qualified meteorologist who probably had a guts full of the back-to-front stuff from Francis and Vavrus who operate in the same discipline. Well done Chuck Wiese.
Climate scientists are not meteorologists as a matter of course. Wratt and Renwick are close with PhDs in atmospheric physics and sciences respectively but they are not degreed meteorologists as I understand. Jennifer Francis does have a B.S. in Meteorology.
From Wiki:
Meteorology makes no recourse to the theoretical radiative physics of the greenhouse effect to determine temperature anywhere in the atmosphere or surface e.g. nightly TV weather forecasts. Same for the space race. The US Air Force Labs modeled atmospheric temperature from surface to top of atmosphere without recourse to the greenhouse effect, first in 1963 and updated in 1976.
Warmies are adamant that only the greenhouse effect can explain surface temperature, but they can’t model with those theoretical priciples for daily weather as do meteorologists. Unfortunately there are those in meteorology, like Francis and Vavrus, who being unable to usefully adopt the greenhouse effect in their discipline, twist the principles of meteorology to get on board the climate gravy train and to gain go-to prominence.
Francis and Vavrus ideas have been accepted as fact by the US media where they have gained plenty traction, especially Francis. But not much support from the meteorological or climate community (except in peer review that is).