‘It’s not as bad as we thought – but global warming is still a disaster, warn UN experts’
* Report compiled by over 800 scientists and used 9,000 scientific studies
* But conceded that world temperatures have barely risen in past 15 years
* This is despite more greenhouse gases being pumped into atmosphere
* Critics say this shows carbon dioxide isn’t as damaging as was claimed
* Report said CO2 has reached levels unprecedented in at least 80,000 year
‘UN climate change report dismisses slowdown in global warming’
The Earth has changed in “unprecedented ways” since 1950, the U.N. says, and its scientists are 95 percent certain that humans are responsible.
Yet the planet has largely stopped warming over the past 15 years, data shows — and a landmark report released Friday by the U.N.’s climate group could not explain why the mercury has stopped rising.
Global surface temperatures rose rapidly during the 70s, but have been relatively flat over the past decade and a half, rising only 0.05 degrees Celsius (0.09 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade according to data from the U.K.’s weather-watching Met Office, a trend current models of the world’s climate have been unable to predict. A draft of the report leaked in early September acknowledged that trend and put it bluntly: We simply can’t explain it.
“Models do not generally reproduce the observed reduction in surface warming trend over the last 10–15 years.”
But a final version of the report released Friday morning by the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) strips out the failure of models and explains away the downward trend.
‘Met Office proof that global warming is still ‘on pause’ as climate summit confirms global temperature has stopped rising’
* The Mail on Sunday first revealed global temperature pause a year ago
* IPCC report confirms no significant rise in global temperature since 1997
* IPCC accused of sinking to ‘hilarious level of incoherence’
* But the IPCC insists 2016-2035 will be 0.3-0.7C hotter than 1986-2005
‘Greenpeace worker loses $5.5m in currency market gamble’
The Hague: A Greenpeace employee has been fired after losing the environmental charity €3.8 million euros ($5.5 million) in a failed gamble on international currency markets.
“Nothing suggests at this point that he acted for personal gain, it seems to be a terrible miscalculation,” Greenpeace communications director Mike Townsley said.
The unnamed employee “went above his authority” in agreeing the deal with a broker who was meant to mitigate currency losses for the charity, he said.
“The contract turned out to be a very bad one,” Mr Townsley said, adding that an internal investigation was under way.
Netherlands-based Greenpeace, like many big charities, agrees fixed-rate foreign exchange deals with third-party brokers to try to protect themselves from world currency fluctuations.
“It is common practice for organisations like ours, with a worldwide presence,” Mr Townsley said. “We would be too exposed to currency fluctuations and risk to lose a lot of money.”
Greenpeace, known for its anti-drilling campaigns at oil rigs in the Arctic, has a total annual budget of around €300 million.
No Greenpeace campaign would suffer as a result of the loss, which would be absorbed by reducing expenses such as infrastructure over the next two to three years.
“We would like to apologise” to donors, Mr Townsley said. “We will do whatever it takes to make sure it doesn’t happen again.”
‘Bureau of Meteorology warms to transparency over adjusted records’
Graham Lloyd, The Australian
September 11, 2014 12:00AM [Paywall]
THE Bureau of Meteorology has been forced to publish details of all changes made to historic temperature records as part of its homogenisation process to establish the nation’s climate change trend. Publication of the reasons for all data adjustments was a key recommendation of the bureau’s independent peer review panel which approved the bureau’s ACORN SAT methodology.
‘Scientists should know better: the truth was out there’
Graham Lloyd, The Australian
September 11, 2014 12:00AM [Paywall]
IT reflects poorly on key members of Australia’s climate science establishment that tribal loyalty is more important than genuine inquiry. Openness not ad hominem histrionics was always the answer for lingering concerns about what happened to some of the nation’s temperature records under the Bureau of Meteorology’s process of homogenisation.
Under pressure, Australian BOM puts up facade of “transparency” — too little, too late
Graham Lloyd’s article in The Australian yesterday shows that the BOM is under pressure, but their lack of transparency continues, and this new page appears to be more like a public relations effort than a big advance scientifically.
What Australia needs is a full working replication of the BOM methods and techniques — only then does a true scientific peer review process begin. If the BOM is so sure it’s doing obvious world’s best practice, why won’t it release the full code? Unpacking and replicating this detailed procedure would take months of analysis. If the Australian government is serious about our climate, they need to fund a proper independent study instead of leaving it to volunteers to do on the weekend, and hoping that someone with the right combination of IT, statistical, climate, and scientific skills will find it entertaining and want to do it for free.
‘Last decade’s slow-down in global warming enhanced by an unusual climate anomaly’
Science Codex, September 11, 2014
A hiatus in global warming ongoing since 2001 is due to a combination of a natural cooling phase, known as multidecadal variability (MDV) and a downturn of the secular warming trend. The exact causes of the latter, unique in the entire observational record going back to 1850, are still to be identified, according to an article by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC).>>>>>>
[…] What bothers him [Stern] most is the way deniers seize on “oscillations” or fluctuations in temperature and try to argue there is no trend. “If you’ve got an undergraduate student, trying to estimate the growth of the economy by joining a line between the peak of the last boom to the bottom of the last recession and think they are estimating the growth rate you would throw them out of class.”
The same poor logic is used by deniers who try to argue temperature stopped rising 10 years ago – completely false when you look at the trend, ask about the overall average and apply knowledge about why decadal oscillations occur.
“Ordinary sensible people looking at evidence will know that you have to take an average over time and if you do that you see every decade over the last five to six decades has been hotter than the previous ones.” […]
Big problem now for the dogged lord. Apart that is, four years on from 2010, that this current decade isn’t following the progression he describes. Stern’s problem is that it is not so much the “oscillations” now that “deniers” are arguing with e.g. multi-decadal variation (MDV), and the literature is documenting MDV “oscillations” now anyway, belatedly. MDV has another 18 years or so in negative phase. That by itself would prolong the “pause” until around 2032 so Stern will have to weather that (ha!) for some years in any case.
No, Stern’s problem actually is the very trend he’s hanging his hat on. More precisely, the secular trend (ST) is turning down away from CO2. Here’s Stern’s nemesis:
‘Last decade’s slowdown in global warming enhanced by an unusual climate anomaly’
Date: September 11, 2014
Source: European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)
Summary:
A hiatus in global warming ongoing since 2001 is due to a combination of a natural cooling phase, known as multidecadal variability (MDV) and a downturn of the secular warming trend [ST]. The exact causes of the latter, unique in the entire observational record going back to 1850, are still to be identified, according to a new article.
Diego Macias, Adolf Stips, Elisa Garcia-Gorriz. Application of the Singular Spectrum Analysis Technique to Study the Recent Hiatus on the Global Surface Temperature Record. PLoS ONE, 2014; 9 (9): e107222 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0107222
>”I found the same turn down in the residual of an EMD analysis of HadSST2/3 a couple of years ago when prior to that the residual was turning up”
Not really news, so have several others in the literature e.g. see:
‘Multi-scale analysis of global temperature changes and trend of a drop in temperature in the next 20 years’
Lin Zhen-Shan and Sun Xian
With 6 Figures
Received May 2, 2005; revised October 24, 2005; accepted April 6, 2006
Published online: July 31, 2006 # Springer-Verlag 2006
Summary
A novel multi-timescale analysis method, Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), is used to diagnose the variation of the annual mean temperature data of the global, Northern Hemisphere (NH) and China from 1881 to 2002. The results show that: (1) Temperature can be completely decomposed into four timescales quasi-periodic oscillations including an ENSO-like mode, a 6–8-year signal, a 20-year signal and a 60-year signal, as well as a trend. With each contributing ration of the quasi-periodicity discussed, the trend and the 60-year timescale oscillation of temperature variation are the most prominent. (2) It has been noticed that whether on century-scale or 60-year scales, the global temperature tends to descend in the coming 20 years. (3) On quasi 60-year timescale, temperature abrupt changes in China precede those in the global and NH, which provides a denotation for global climate changes. Signs also show a drop in temperature in China on century scale in the next 20 years. (4) The dominant contribution of CO2 concentration to global temperature variation is the trend. However, its influence weight on global temperature variation accounts for no more than 40.19%, smaller than those of the natural climate changes on the rest four timescales. Despite the increasing trend in atmospheric CO2 concentration, the patterns of 20-year and 60-year oscillation of global temperature are all in falling. Therefore, if CO2 concentration remains constant at present, the CO2 greenhouse effect will be deficient in counterchecking the natural cooling of global climate in the following 20 years. Even though the CO2 greenhouse effect on global climate change is unsuspicious, it could have been excessively exaggerated. It is high time to re-consider the trend of global climate changes.
The evidence is in – humans have left a distinctive fingerprint at the 2013 drought crime scene.
In an international paper released this week, New Zealand scientists have analysed climate models around the extreme weather event, which knocked at least $1.3 billion out of New Zealand’s economy.
While the natural variations played a leading role, human activity was a definite accomplice, according to National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research scientist Sam Dean.
With two Victoria University and two fellow Niwa scientists, Dean used computer modelling to compare the 2013 climate over New Zealand with a simulation of the world “that might have been” without the greenhouse gases and chlorofluorocarbons that people have pumped into the atmosphere.
“We found that the drought was a little more intense than it would have been without climate change.”
In summer, greenhouse gases and the ozone hole intensified the high-pressure systems that brought dry weather, Dean said.
“In 2011, he had inadvertently overstayed his visa, so he filed a series of court appeals in a bid to stay in New Zealand. What he wanted was something straightforward: a visa extension. What he got, however, was an attorney who decided to present Teitiota as a casualty of climate change—and to set out to change international law.
Given CO2 emissions by container ships (far greater then national car fleets), this will show up in human emissions data and highlight the disconnect with atmospheric CO2 levels (already evident).
Also possibly a precursor to the Revelation 18 prophecy:
Rev 18:11 And the merchants of the earth shall weep and mourn over her [modern financial “Babylon”]; for no man buyeth their merchandise any more:
And,
Rev 18:17 For in one hour so great riches is come to nought. And every shipmaster, and all the company in ships, and sailors, and as many as trade by sea, stood afar off,
Rev 18:18 And cried when they saw the smoke of her [modern financial “Babylon’s”] burning, saying, What city is like unto this great city!
>”Given CO2 emissions by container ships (far greater then national car fleets), this will show up in human emissions data”
Wrong here, I was thinking terms of actual pollution. CO2 from shipping: 2.7% in 2007; vehicles accounted for about 7 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2006.
But given both a reduction in shipping AND the reduction in processing and burning of shipped commodities e.g. iron ore and coal, these reductions will certainly show up in emissions data. The last 3 years to 2015 were already flat i.e. no growth.
‘Court allows climate skeptics access to RICO20 prof’s e-mail’
FME Law, the Energy & Environment Legal Institute, and others should now look forward to publicly discussing what this information reveals about the ongoing campaign by text pair funded academics, lawn force meant officials, and major political party donors to use the offices of attorney general to prosecute and silence political opponents.
Disturbing “news” for way…..way out…..in the future from the media’s go-to Chicken Little and spokesperson for the “Science Media Centre”:
‘What would happen to the atmosphere if we burned all our fossil fuels?’
RACHEL THOMAS May 30 2016
Q: What would happen to the atmosphere if we burned all our fossil fuels?
A: Professor James Renwick, school of geography, environment and earth sciences, Victoria University says:
If we were to use up all of our planet’s fossil-fuel resources, we’d increase the global average temperature by about 8 degrees Celsius globally by 2300, Canadian scientists report in Nature Climate Change.
The estimate is realistic, given the physical processes included in the models analysed.
The results are consistent with results shown in the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, where the extended scenario: RCP8.5 – the one where we just keep burning the fossil fuels – showed warming of 8C or 9C by 2300.
The estimates in this paper are realistic – and very worrying.
[…]
The amount of warming and climate change shown by these results would throw global society into chaos and would likely result in billions of deaths, from hunger and conflict over resources.
Or, be more than a little sceptical of Chicken Little Renwick and “the physical processes included in the models analysed” given the inability to model the current climate – let alone 2300.
‘Ten things New Zealand can learn about climate change’
Tim Naish and James Renwick
3 Almost 100 per cent of scientists are certain that global warming is human-induced.
[…]
And finally the radiative effects of carbon dioxide and methane as powerful greenhouse gases has been known for more than a century.
The physics is beyond question.
Skeptics would do well to stop wasting their energy, and distracting the public and scientists by trying to deconstruct this scientific truth, and join the rest of humanity in helping figure out what to do about climate change.
They wish. Ignorant arrogant and clueless too apparently. Yes the physics of “the radiative effects of carbon dioxide and methane” is “beyond question” but so what? That is NOT the issue. There are 2 issues:
1) Is theoretical GHG forcing a valid climate driver? No, as demonstrated by theory (Chapter 8) vs observations (Chapter 2) in the IPCC’s own AR5 report.
2) Is downwelling longwave radiation (IR-C, DLR) a surface material heating agent? No, The net LW flux is UP (-52.4 W.m-2) from the surface i.e. a COOLING flux of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). The CO2 component of DLR is only about 2% (7/345.6) and the change since 1976 only about 1 W.m-2 i.e. 0.3% (1/345.6). This is negligible. And DLR only penetrates the ocean surface by a max of about 100 microns. This is about the thickness of a human hair.
5 Ninety-three per cent of the heat ………….. from humankind’s use of fossil fuels has gone into the ocean.
This is an outright fabrication (a lie). The IPCC only speculates on this in Chapter 10 Detection and Attribution i.e. attribution by speculation. They have no science whatsoever to support their speculation. They went looking for their speculated “air-sea” fluxes in Chapter 2 but could not find them. Pointless to look because the earth’s energy budget they cite does not have any net LW flux into the ocean so there cannot be an air to sea heat transfer (and see 2 above).
Naish and Renwick are scientific phonies and they are touting scientific fraud – they are either totally inept or charletans.
Professor Tim Naish and James Renwick speaking tour
Napier: 6pm Wednesday, July 6, Century Theatre, MTG, 9 Herschell Street
Palmerston North: 7.30pm Thursday, July 7, Palmerston North Public Library, 4 The Square
Christchurch: 6.30pm Wednesday, August 3, C1 LT, Central Lecture Theatre Block, University of Canterbury, Arts Road
Dunedin: 5.30pm. Thursday August 4, Hutton Theatre, Otago Museum, 419 Great King Street
Wanaka: 6pm Friday, August 5, Presbyterian Church Hall, 91 Tenby Street
Auckland: 6pm Tuesday September 6, The Auditorium, Level 2 Auckland Museum, The Domain, Parnell
Wellington: 6pm Wednesday September 7, Aronui Lecture Theatre, Royal Society of New Zealand, 11 Turnbull Street, Thorndon
Nelson: 7.30pm Thursday, September 8, Elim Christian Centre, 625 Main Road, Stoke
Russians Charge All Greenpeace Activists On Arctic Sunrise With Piracy
http://toryaardvark.com/2013/09/24/russians-charge-all-greenpeace-activists-on-arctic-sunrise-with-piracy/
and face up to 15 years in jail
‘It’s not as bad as we thought – but global warming is still a disaster, warn UN experts’
* Report compiled by over 800 scientists and used 9,000 scientific studies
* But conceded that world temperatures have barely risen in past 15 years
* This is despite more greenhouse gases being pumped into atmosphere
* Critics say this shows carbon dioxide isn’t as damaging as was claimed
* Report said CO2 has reached levels unprecedented in at least 80,000 year
By Fiona Macrae
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2436113/IPCC-climate-change-report-Humans-causing-global-warming-STILL-explain-Earths-barely-got-hotter-15-years.html#ixzz2gE19E5XG
# # #
Just a matter of picking up on the models/obs “divergence” and Fiona Macrae will be reporting the sceptic argument soon.
Fox News are on to it:
‘UN climate change report dismisses slowdown in global warming’
The Earth has changed in “unprecedented ways” since 1950, the U.N. says, and its scientists are 95 percent certain that humans are responsible.
Yet the planet has largely stopped warming over the past 15 years, data shows — and a landmark report released Friday by the U.N.’s climate group could not explain why the mercury has stopped rising.
Global surface temperatures rose rapidly during the 70s, but have been relatively flat over the past decade and a half, rising only 0.05 degrees Celsius (0.09 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade according to data from the U.K.’s weather-watching Met Office, a trend current models of the world’s climate have been unable to predict. A draft of the report leaked in early September acknowledged that trend and put it bluntly: We simply can’t explain it.
“Models do not generally reproduce the observed reduction in surface warming trend over the last 10–15 years.”
But a final version of the report released Friday morning by the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) strips out the failure of models and explains away the downward trend.
>>>>>>>>
http://www.foxnews.com/science/2013/09/27/un-climate-change-report-dismisses-slowdown-in-global-warming/
No let up from David Rose either:
‘Met Office proof that global warming is still ‘on pause’ as climate summit confirms global temperature has stopped rising’
* The Mail on Sunday first revealed global temperature pause a year ago
* IPCC report confirms no significant rise in global temperature since 1997
* IPCC accused of sinking to ‘hilarious level of incoherence’
* But the IPCC insists 2016-2035 will be 0.3-0.7C hotter than 1986-2005
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2436710/Met-office-proof-global-warming-pause-climate-summit-confirms-global-temperature-stopped-rising.html#ixzz2gFlwf1Ob
Rodney Hide in NBR
Hidesight: Zombie Greens chant false science mantra
http://archive.is/ZNW4t
BBC coverage criticised for favouring climate change sceptics
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/oct/28/bbc-coverage-favouring-climate-change-sceptics
/face palm
[BBC] – “It was -17C (1F) in the small town of Hell, Michigan, prompting online jokes that the weather was so bad even hell had frozen over”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-25647963
Google > News > Climate Science (you gotta laugh at this News category today)
NASA Says 2013 Was Seventh Warmest Year
reportingclimatescience.com – 1 hour ago
NASA scientists say 2013 tied with 2009 and 2006 for the seventh warmest year since 1880
http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/nasa-says-2013-was-seventh-warmest-year.html
NOAA Says 2013 Was The Fourth Warmest Year
reportingclimatescience.com – 1 hour ago
The globally averaged temperature for 2013 tied as the fourth warmest year since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA scientists.
http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/noaa-says-2013-was-the-fourth-warmest-year-on-record.html
# # #
Note that NOAA actually has 2013 in a tie with 2003 for fourth. I also like the usual NASA spin:
“…..continuing a long-term trend of rising global temperatures”
At least reportingclimatescience.com hints there’s a little more to the story:
“….this appears to confirm that the so called pause in global warming that began around 1998 appears to have continued in 2013”
But do they really have to use the word “appears” twice?
It’s as if they can’t quite bring themselves to face the realisation of it all.
Curiously the NASA article has already “disappeared” from the Google Climate Science News category but the NOAA article is still there.
Apparently, fourth warmest is news at Google – but seventh warmest isn’t.
NASA article’s back and ahead of the NOAA one this morning – weird.
‘Greenpeace worker loses $5.5m in currency market gamble’
The Hague: A Greenpeace employee has been fired after losing the environmental charity €3.8 million euros ($5.5 million) in a failed gamble on international currency markets.
“Nothing suggests at this point that he acted for personal gain, it seems to be a terrible miscalculation,” Greenpeace communications director Mike Townsley said.
The unnamed employee “went above his authority” in agreeing the deal with a broker who was meant to mitigate currency losses for the charity, he said.
“The contract turned out to be a very bad one,” Mr Townsley said, adding that an internal investigation was under way.
Netherlands-based Greenpeace, like many big charities, agrees fixed-rate foreign exchange deals with third-party brokers to try to protect themselves from world currency fluctuations.
“It is common practice for organisations like ours, with a worldwide presence,” Mr Townsley said. “We would be too exposed to currency fluctuations and risk to lose a lot of money.”
Greenpeace, known for its anti-drilling campaigns at oil rigs in the Arctic, has a total annual budget of around €300 million.
No Greenpeace campaign would suffer as a result of the loss, which would be absorbed by reducing expenses such as infrastructure over the next two to three years.
“We would like to apologise” to donors, Mr Townsley said. “We will do whatever it takes to make sure it doesn’t happen again.”
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/greenpeace-worker-loses-55m-in-currency-market-gamble-20140616-zs8wu.html#ixzz34mkdOwaY
‘Bureau of Meteorology warms to transparency over adjusted records’
Graham Lloyd, The Australian
September 11, 2014 12:00AM [Paywall]
THE Bureau of Meteorology has been forced to publish details of all changes made to historic temperature records as part of its homogenisation process to establish the nation’s climate change trend. Publication of the reasons for all data adjustments was a key recommendation of the bureau’s independent peer review panel which approved the bureau’s ACORN SAT methodology.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate/bureau-of-meteorology-warms-to-transparency-over-adjusted-records/story-e6frg6xf-1227054494820
‘Scientists should know better: the truth was out there’
Graham Lloyd, The Australian
September 11, 2014 12:00AM [Paywall]
IT reflects poorly on key members of Australia’s climate science establishment that tribal loyalty is more important than genuine inquiry. Openness not ad hominem histrionics was always the answer for lingering concerns about what happened to some of the nation’s temperature records under the Bureau of Meteorology’s process of homogenisation.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/scientists-should-know-better-the-truth-was-out-there/story-e6frgd0x-1227054494459
Under pressure, Australian BOM puts up facade of “transparency” — too little, too late
http://joannenova.com.au/2014/09/under-pressure-australian-bom-puts-up-facade-of-transparency-too-little-too-late/
‘Last decade’s slow-down in global warming enhanced by an unusual climate anomaly’
Science Codex, September 11, 2014
A hiatus in global warming ongoing since 2001 is due to a combination of a natural cooling phase, known as multidecadal variability (MDV) and a downturn of the secular warming trend. The exact causes of the latter, unique in the entire observational record going back to 1850, are still to be identified, according to an article by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC).>>>>>>
http://www.sciencecodex.com/last_decades_slowdown_in_global_warming_enhanced_by_an_unusual_climate_anomaly-141430
Whoop-de-doo – what sceptics have known for yonks. More in this thread (#58):
http://joannenova.com.au/2014/09/scientists-invent-time-travelling-models-that-might-have-worked/#comment-1563552
And see #54/54.1 re Climategate:
[2007] Wils: “What if climate change appears to be just mainly a multidecadal natural fluctuation? They’ll kill us probably ”
‘Dogged lord [Stern] of climate change’
By Chris Barton, NZ Herald. Sep 11, 2010
[…] What bothers him [Stern] most is the way deniers seize on “oscillations” or fluctuations in temperature and try to argue there is no trend. “If you’ve got an undergraduate student, trying to estimate the growth of the economy by joining a line between the peak of the last boom to the bottom of the last recession and think they are estimating the growth rate you would throw them out of class.”
The same poor logic is used by deniers who try to argue temperature stopped rising 10 years ago – completely false when you look at the trend, ask about the overall average and apply knowledge about why decadal oscillations occur.
“Ordinary sensible people looking at evidence will know that you have to take an average over time and if you do that you see every decade over the last five to six decades has been hotter than the previous ones.” […]
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/environment/news/article.cfm?c_id=39&objectid=10672494
# # #
Big problem now for the dogged lord. Apart that is, four years on from 2010, that this current decade isn’t following the progression he describes. Stern’s problem is that it is not so much the “oscillations” now that “deniers” are arguing with e.g. multi-decadal variation (MDV), and the literature is documenting MDV “oscillations” now anyway, belatedly. MDV has another 18 years or so in negative phase. That by itself would prolong the “pause” until around 2032 so Stern will have to weather that (ha!) for some years in any case.
No, Stern’s problem actually is the very trend he’s hanging his hat on. More precisely, the secular trend (ST) is turning down away from CO2. Here’s Stern’s nemesis:
‘Last decade’s slowdown in global warming enhanced by an unusual climate anomaly’
Date: September 11, 2014
Source: European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)
Summary:
A hiatus in global warming ongoing since 2001 is due to a combination of a natural cooling phase, known as multidecadal variability (MDV) and a downturn of the secular warming trend [ST]. The exact causes of the latter, unique in the entire observational record going back to 1850, are still to be identified, according to a new article.
Diego Macias, Adolf Stips, Elisa Garcia-Gorriz. Application of the Singular Spectrum Analysis Technique to Study the Recent Hiatus on the Global Surface Temperature Record. PLoS ONE, 2014; 9 (9): e107222 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0107222
More, and see graph. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/09/140911092905.htm
I found the same turn down in the residual of an EMD analysis of HadSST2/3 a couple of years ago when prior to that the residual was turning up.
The NZ blog TUMEKE! seized on the Herald article and quote above back in 2010:
http://tumeke.blogspot.co.nz/2010/09/lord-stern-reminds-us-climate-change-is.html
Time to eat crow TUMEKE!
>”I found the same turn down in the residual of an EMD analysis of HadSST2/3 a couple of years ago when prior to that the residual was turning up”
Not really news, so have several others in the literature e.g. see:
‘Multi-scale analysis of global temperature changes and trend of a drop in temperature in the next 20 years’
Lin Zhen-Shan and Sun Xian
With 6 Figures
Received May 2, 2005; revised October 24, 2005; accepted April 6, 2006
Published online: July 31, 2006 # Springer-Verlag 2006
Summary
A novel multi-timescale analysis method, Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), is used to diagnose the variation of the annual mean temperature data of the global, Northern Hemisphere (NH) and China from 1881 to 2002. The results show that: (1) Temperature can be completely decomposed into four timescales quasi-periodic oscillations including an ENSO-like mode, a 6–8-year signal, a 20-year signal and a 60-year signal, as well as a trend. With each contributing ration of the quasi-periodicity discussed, the trend and the 60-year timescale oscillation of temperature variation are the most prominent. (2) It has been noticed that whether on century-scale or 60-year scales, the global temperature tends to descend in the coming 20 years. (3) On quasi 60-year timescale, temperature abrupt changes in China precede those in the global and NH, which provides a denotation for global climate changes. Signs also show a drop in temperature in China on century scale in the next 20 years. (4) The dominant contribution of CO2 concentration to global temperature variation is the trend. However, its influence weight on global temperature variation accounts for no more than 40.19%, smaller than those of the natural climate changes on the rest four timescales. Despite the increasing trend in atmospheric CO2 concentration, the patterns of 20-year and 60-year oscillation of global temperature are all in falling. Therefore, if CO2 concentration remains constant at present, the CO2 greenhouse effect will be deficient in counterchecking the natural cooling of global climate in the following 20 years. Even though the CO2 greenhouse effect on global climate change is unsuspicious, it could have been excessively exaggerated. It is high time to re-consider the trend of global climate changes.
http://www.crikey.com.au/wp-content/uploads/Media/docs/Zhen-Shan–Xiuan-MeteorAtmosPhys-2007-d1227bc1-3183-456f-a935-69c263af1904.pdf
‘Drought lengthened by climate change’
OLIVIA WANNAN. Stuff 02/10/2014
The evidence is in – humans have left a distinctive fingerprint at the 2013 drought crime scene.
In an international paper released this week, New Zealand scientists have analysed climate models around the extreme weather event, which knocked at least $1.3 billion out of New Zealand’s economy.
While the natural variations played a leading role, human activity was a definite accomplice, according to National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research scientist Sam Dean.
With two Victoria University and two fellow Niwa scientists, Dean used computer modelling to compare the 2013 climate over New Zealand with a simulation of the world “that might have been” without the greenhouse gases and chlorofluorocarbons that people have pumped into the atmosphere.
“We found that the drought was a little more intense than it would have been without climate change.”
In summer, greenhouse gases and the ozone hole intensified the high-pressure systems that brought dry weather, Dean said.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/10568966/Drought-lengthened-by-climate-change
>”greenhouse gases and the ozone hole intensified the high-pressure systems”
This is new. How?
[BTW, went to post this in ‘New Zealand’ – got 404 Not found, does not exist, etc]
Brent Crude now down to $72 a barrel
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30223721
This is almost half the price it was earlier this year. Many layoffs and pay cuts coming in the industry
Kiribati “Climate Refugee” loses appeal
Eric Worrall / 2 days ago July 20, 2015
In comments,
duker
July 20, 2015 at 3:20 am
Citation delivered:
http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/01/28/the-making-of-a-climate-refugee-kiribati-tarawa-teitiota/
“How an unsuspecting farmworker from Kiribati became the brand ambassador of climate change—despite barely knowing what it was.”
and
“In 2011, he had inadvertently overstayed his visa, so he filed a series of court appeals in a bid to stay in New Zealand. What he wanted was something straightforward: a visa extension. What he got, however, was an attorney who decided to present Teitiota as a casualty of climate change—and to set out to change international law.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/07/20/kiribati-climate-refugee-loses-appeal/
‘2015 Hottest year on record – NASA, NOAA’
Posted in In the News on January 21st, 2016. [Science Media Centre]
[…]
The NASA announcement has been covered in New Zealand media. Examples include [hotlinks]:
TVNZ News: 2015 was the world’s hottest year on record – and it’s not good news for NZ
3 News: NZ should be worried about hottest year on record Greenpeace
New Zealand Herald: 2015 was hottest year in recorded history, scientists say
3 News: 2015: hottest year on record
NZ City News: Hottest year on record ‘disturbing’ for NZ
RNZ: 2015 hottest year on record – NASA
Yahoo NZ News: Last year was hottest on record globally – U.S. science agencies
http://www.sciencemediacentre.co.nz/2016/01/21/2015-hottest-year-on-record-nasa-noaa/
# # #
In the NASA GISS dataset, the 2015 SH Extratropics anomaly was cooler than 1980 (0.41 vs 0.46).
Sobering news from China and Europe:
And,
From:
‘Once Bustling Trade Ports in Asia and Europe Lose Steam’
From Shanghai to Hamburg, container-shipping industry is gripped by economic undertow
http://www.wsj.com/articles/once-bustling-trade-ports-in-asia-and-europe-lose-steam-1461696304
# # #
Given CO2 emissions by container ships (far greater then national car fleets), this will show up in human emissions data and highlight the disconnect with atmospheric CO2 levels (already evident).
Also possibly a precursor to the Revelation 18 prophecy:
Rev 18:11 And the merchants of the earth shall weep and mourn over her [modern financial “Babylon”]; for no man buyeth their merchandise any more:
And,
Rev 18:17 For in one hour so great riches is come to nought. And every shipmaster, and all the company in ships, and sailors, and as many as trade by sea, stood afar off,
Rev 18:18 And cried when they saw the smoke of her [modern financial “Babylon’s”] burning, saying, What city is like unto this great city!
https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Revelation+18
>”Given CO2 emissions by container ships (far greater then national car fleets), this will show up in human emissions data”
Wrong here, I was thinking terms of actual pollution. CO2 from shipping: 2.7% in 2007; vehicles accounted for about 7 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2006.
But given both a reduction in shipping AND the reduction in processing and burning of shipped commodities e.g. iron ore and coal, these reductions will certainly show up in emissions data. The last 3 years to 2015 were already flat i.e. no growth.
The perils of speech-to-text converters:
‘Court allows climate skeptics access to RICO20 prof’s e-mail’
FME Law, the Energy & Environment Legal Institute, and others should now look forward to publicly discussing what this information reveals about the ongoing campaign by text pair funded academics, lawn force meant officials, and major political party donors to use the offices of attorney general to prosecute and silence political opponents.
http://junkscience.com/2016/05/court-allows-climate-skeptics-access-to-rico20-profs-e-mail/
# # #
See comments
Disturbing “news” for way…..way out…..in the future from the media’s go-to Chicken Little and spokesperson for the “Science Media Centre”:
‘What would happen to the atmosphere if we burned all our fossil fuels?’
RACHEL THOMAS May 30 2016
Q: What would happen to the atmosphere if we burned all our fossil fuels?
A: Professor James Renwick, school of geography, environment and earth sciences, Victoria University says:
If we were to use up all of our planet’s fossil-fuel resources, we’d increase the global average temperature by about 8 degrees Celsius globally by 2300, Canadian scientists report in Nature Climate Change.
The estimate is realistic, given the physical processes included in the models analysed.
The results are consistent with results shown in the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, where the extended scenario: RCP8.5 – the one where we just keep burning the fossil fuels – showed warming of 8C or 9C by 2300.
The estimates in this paper are realistic – and very worrying.
[…]
The amount of warming and climate change shown by these results would throw global society into chaos and would likely result in billions of deaths, from hunger and conflict over resources.
Source: Science Media Centre
http://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/80368997/what-would-happen-to-the-atmosphere-if-we-burned-all-our-fossil-fuels
# # #
Be VERY afraid.
Or, be more than a little sceptical of Chicken Little Renwick and “the physical processes included in the models analysed” given the inability to model the current climate – let alone 2300.
‘Ten things New Zealand can learn about climate change’
Tim Naish and James Renwick
They wish. Ignorant arrogant and clueless too apparently. Yes the physics of “the radiative effects of carbon dioxide and methane” is “beyond question” but so what? That is NOT the issue. There are 2 issues:
1) Is theoretical GHG forcing a valid climate driver? No, as demonstrated by theory (Chapter 8) vs observations (Chapter 2) in the IPCC’s own AR5 report.
2) Is downwelling longwave radiation (IR-C, DLR) a surface material heating agent? No, The net LW flux is UP (-52.4 W.m-2) from the surface i.e. a COOLING flux of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). The CO2 component of DLR is only about 2% (7/345.6) and the change since 1976 only about 1 W.m-2 i.e. 0.3% (1/345.6). This is negligible. And DLR only penetrates the ocean surface by a max of about 100 microns. This is about the thickness of a human hair.
This is an outright fabrication (a lie). The IPCC only speculates on this in Chapter 10 Detection and Attribution i.e. attribution by speculation. They have no science whatsoever to support their speculation. They went looking for their speculated “air-sea” fluxes in Chapter 2 but could not find them. Pointless to look because the earth’s energy budget they cite does not have any net LW flux into the ocean so there cannot be an air to sea heat transfer (and see 2 above).
Naish and Renwick are scientific phonies and they are touting scientific fraud – they are either totally inept or charletans.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11669116
# # #
Professor Tim Naish and James Renwick speaking tour
Napier: 6pm Wednesday, July 6, Century Theatre, MTG, 9 Herschell Street
Palmerston North: 7.30pm Thursday, July 7, Palmerston North Public Library, 4 The Square
Christchurch: 6.30pm Wednesday, August 3, C1 LT, Central Lecture Theatre Block, University of Canterbury, Arts Road
Dunedin: 5.30pm. Thursday August 4, Hutton Theatre, Otago Museum, 419 Great King Street
Wanaka: 6pm Friday, August 5, Presbyterian Church Hall, 91 Tenby Street
Auckland: 6pm Tuesday September 6, The Auditorium, Level 2 Auckland Museum, The Domain, Parnell
Wellington: 6pm Wednesday September 7, Aronui Lecture Theatre, Royal Society of New Zealand, 11 Turnbull Street, Thorndon
Nelson: 7.30pm Thursday, September 8, Elim Christian Centre, 625 Main Road, Stoke
• For more information, visit http://www.royalsociety.org.nz/events/ten-by-ten/ten-by-ten-climate-change